As Bitcoin plunges below its support level, holding above $82K is critical. Falling below this level could trigger capitulation from both STHs and LTHs.
This week, whale moves are leaning more toward distribution, showing that even Bitcoin OGs are taking profits as Bitcoin plunges.
The spotlight is now on Bitcoin’s [BTC] buyer side.
The logic is simple: As BTC plunges further from its ATHs, holding support becomes crucial. With profits being squeezed and BTC sitting on a key cost basis, sell-side pressure is likely to build as weak hands shake out.
However, the lack of an immediate rebound is reinforcing buyer indecision.
Despite four consecutive weeks of declines, strong buying interest has yet to emerge.
With mounting pressure, data suggests that Bitcoin must hold its current level; otherwise, a repeat of the 2022 bear market could be looming.
Bitcoin OG whales aren’t dodging the downside this cycle.
On-chain, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV has dropped to nearly 1.4, at press time, from the early-October peak of 3.4, tracking closely with the broader market as Bitcoin plunges nearly 30% from its $126K all-time high.
Simply put, LTHs’ profitability cushion is thinning out fast.
Adding to this, Santiment flags this week as “the most active Bitcoin whale week of 2025.” So far, there have been over 102.9K whale transactions exceeding $100K and more than 29K transactions exceeding $1 million.
At the same time, as Bitcoin plunges below $90K with a 1.6% weekly dip, whale activity appears to be tilting toward distribution. Supporting this, Lookonchain flagged a BTC OG whale moving all 2,499 BTC into Kraken.
In short, with long-term holders seeing their profits shrink, selling BTC is becoming a logical play. As a result, even as Bitcoin plunges deeper into the red, bid-side support remains absent, keeping any rebound at a standstill.
That said, a confirmed bear phase isn’t here yet.
Notably, Glassnode data highlights a key support level that Bitcoin needs to hold to avoid triggering a full-blown downtrend. However, if bid-side support remains weak, could a deeper slide become inevitable?
Unsurprisingly, a STH shakeout is playing out as expected.
From an on-chain perspective, as Bitcoin plunges below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis of $109K, the STH NUPL is dropping into the capitulation zone, putting more pressure on BTC’s ability to HODL support.
At press time, Glassnode data revealed stress in two key on-chain metrics: the Active Investors Mean stood at $88.6K, while the True Market Mean was at $82K.
A break below would confirm the first major bear trend since May 2022.
For context, these metrics represent Bitcoin’s “fair value” zones.
In other words, prices where buyers step in to absorb the selling pressure. The Active Investors Mean tracks the average cost basis of “active” participants, while the True Market Mean reflects the broader cost basis.
However, as Bitcoin plunges and bid-side support weakens, these zones are coming under pressure. If they fail, it could indicate capitulation from both STHs and LTHs, raising the risk of a deeper, prolonged bear cycle.
In short, holding above $82K is now more important than ever for Bitcoin.
