Bitcoin has recorded $2.3 billion in realized losses in what one analyst describes as one of the largest capitulation events in its history, drawing comparisons to the 2021 crash.
According to IT Tech in a note published Thursday on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s seven-day average realized net losses surged to $2.3 billion. The analyst characterized the move as “one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history,” placing it alongside the 2021 downturn, the 2022 Luna and FTX collapse, and the mid-2024 correction.
“This ranks among the top three to five loss events ever recorded,” IT Tech said, adding that only a handful of moments in Bitcoin’s history have witnessed capitulation at this scale.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $66,600, down nearly 50% from its October all-time high above $126,000. The cryptocurrency has rebounded slightly after touching a recent low of $60,000 on Feb. 6.
Risk of a prolonged downturn remains
IT Tech noted that previous spikes in realized losses of this magnitude have often been followed by rebounds, pointing out that Bitcoin briefly climbed above $70,000 on Tuesday. However, the analyst cautioned that the recent move could still mark the start of a deeper, more prolonged decline.
“Extreme loss spikes like this have triggered rebounds in the past,” IT Tech said, adding that relief rallies are common even during extended bear markets. “This could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out.”
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant said in a post on X that $55,000 represents Bitcoin’s realized price — a level historically associated with bear market bottoms.
In prior cycles, Bitcoin traded between 24% and 30% below its realized price before eventually stabilizing, the firm noted. “When BTC reaches this zone, it typically consolidates before beginning a recovery.”
More time may be needed to find a bottom
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the recent capitulation reflects “intense short-term holder panic and washout amid broader macro pressures and a shift into bear market territory.”
While such deeply oversold conditions have historically preceded recovery phases, Ruck cautioned that the market may still need more time before reaching a definitive bottom. He said stronger confirmation could come from signals such as sustained institutional accumulation or signs of miner stabilization.
Ruck identified a potential support range between $40,000 and $60,000, depending on how market conditions evolve — a projection that aligns with estimates from other analysts.
