BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who previously predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this year, says he prefers to stay on the sidelines for now instead of investing in BTC. He explained that he plans to wait until the US Federal Reserve begins loosening its monetary policy.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast published on YouTube on Tuesday, Hayes said, “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I put it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait.”
Hayes added that ongoing geopolitical tensions could eventually force the Fed to print more money to support US military spending. According to him, the longer the conflict continues, the greater the chance the Federal Reserve will resort to monetary expansion.
He noted that he plans to start buying Bitcoin once the Fed begins easing its monetary policy.
“That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.”
Hayes noted that while some people claim “war is good for Bitcoin,” he believes the more accurate statement is that “money printing is good for Bitcoin.”
He also said he is uncertain whether Bitcoin has already reached its price bottom. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $69,926, about 45% below its October all-time high of $126,000. However, Hayes warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions could still drive the price lower.
Hayes warned that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran could trigger a sharp market downturn.
“Given the unfortunate war between the US and Iran, the longer this situation continues, the greater the chance we could see a major sell-off in equities and Bitcoin,” he said.
According to Hayes, such a scenario could push Bitcoin below the $60,000 level, potentially triggering a cascade of liquidations across the market. Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 mark on Feb. 6 before beginning a mild upward trend.
Despite the short-term uncertainty, Hayes has maintained a bullish long-term outlook. He previously predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and as recently as October last year, he reiterated his confidence in that forecast.
Some analysts, however, are more optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term performance. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted the positive impact of a strong rally in the Nasdaq, suggesting it could support further gains in Bitcoin.
“There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and based on that, I think we’ll see significantly more upside in Bitcoin and altcoins in the coming period,” van de Poppe said.
Meanwhile, Hayes noted that he doesn’t expect Bitcoin to remain below $100,000 for many more years.
