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Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom.
This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000.
A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle eventually stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns across cycles.
Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the Bitcoin price finally found a durable bottom before beginning a new bull phase.
During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin ultimately formed its bottom near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement low before a new accumulation phase began. However, the 2021 market cycle bottom occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level.
If October 2025 was the true cycle high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests, then history gives us a roadmap for where price is likely headed before the next major bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin may eventually bottom if history repeats.
Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 sits at approximately $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns closely with the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level alone may not represent the final low, based on how previous cycles behaved.
Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level sits near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly 100-moving average. Beneath that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000.
Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next long-term low could be somewhere within the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak proves to be the true cycle high.
Some market commentators have floated lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern-memory analysis shows that such a drop would represent a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior.
