Key takeaways:
- BTC open interest drops to $34 billion, yet steady BTC-denominated volume signals that leverage demand hasn’t significantly weakened.
- Meanwhile, softer US jobs data and a bearish tilt in Bitcoin options skew point to shifting sentiment, even as gold and equities continue to demonstrate relative resilience.
Bitcoin has struggled to hold above the $72,000 mark over the past week, raising concerns among investors that institutional appetite may be fading. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, intensifying speculation about a potential pullback toward the $60,000 support level amid rising uncertainty.
Aggregate BTC futures open interest fell to $34 billion on Thursday, marking a 28% drop from a month ago. Yet, when measured in Bitcoin terms, it remains largely unchanged at 502,450 BTC, indicating that demand for leverage hasn’t truly declined. A portion of the drop is also linked to forced liquidations, which reached $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Weak leverage demand highlights Bitcoin’s troubling market decoupling
Investors are growing increasingly concerned over the absence of a clear catalyst behind Bitcoin’s 28% decline in the past month, even as gold reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level and the S&P 500 trades just 1% below its record highs. Some analysts point to early signs of weakness in the US labor market as a driver of this risk-off sentiment.
The US Labor Department reported on Wednesday that the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, below prior expectations. The White House, however, has sought to downplay these concerns. According to the BBC, officials argue that slower population growth, influenced by current immigration policies, has reduced the number of new jobs the US economy needs to create.
Bitcoin’s historic 52% drop on March 13, 2020, unfolded amid peak COVID-19 fears, which foreshadowed a sharp rise in unemployment claims. Today, with economic growth facing potential headwinds, the US Federal Reserve may be prompted to cut interest rates sooner than expected. Lower borrowing costs for businesses and easier financing for consumers help explain the stock market’s resilience in 2026.
By contrast, confidence in Bitcoin appears muted, as evidenced by weak demand for bullish leveraged positions, highlighting a concerning decoupling from traditional markets.
The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures has stayed below the neutral 12% mark for the past four months, reflecting persistent market fear. Even though the rate has bounced slightly from last week’s negative levels, bears still dominate sentiment. Bitcoin options data suggest that professional traders remain reluctant to take on exposure to downside price risk.
The BTC options delta skew on Deribit jumped to 22% on Thursday, as put (sell) options traded at a notable premium. Typically, this indicator fluctuates between -6% and +6%, signaling a balance between upside and downside risk appetite. The skew last turned bullish in May 2025, when Bitcoin reclaimed $93,000 after retesting $75,000.
Despite signs of weakness in derivatives, the $5.4 billion average daily trading volume in US-listed Bitcoin ETFs suggests that institutional interest remains intact. While it’s unclear what might trigger renewed buying pressure, Bitcoin’s next recovery phase will likely hinge on clearer insights into US labor market conditions.
