CryptoQuant says Bitcoin hasn’t hit full capitulation, flags $55K as potential bear market bottom after $5.4B Feb. 5 sell-off.
Bitcoin remains under pressure as analysts assess whether the market has reached a cycle low.
Onchain data firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has not yet formed a “full capitulation” bottom. The firm added that several indicators still point to a continuing bear phase.
CryptoQuant reported that key onchain indicators remain in a “bear phase.” The firm said they have not entered the “extreme bear phase” seen at historic cycle bottoms.
Past market lows showed deeper stress across multiple metrics.
The company monitors realized losses, investor behavior, and network activity.
According to its latest update, those signals do not yet match prior bottom formations. The data suggests that the market has not reached peak capitulation levels.
CryptoQuant stated that historic cycle lows were marked by broad panic selling. Those periods showed sustained and elevated realized losses.
Current readings remain below those prior extremes.
Bitcoin’s sell-off on Feb. 5 resulted in about $5.4 billion in realized losses in one day. That figure marked one of the larger daily loss events of the current cycle.
However, CryptoQuant said monthly cumulative realized losses remain lower than past bear market bottoms.
The firm explained that prior cycle lows showed prolonged periods of heavy losses. Those losses accumulated over weeks or months. The recent data has not yet reached similar levels.
Realized losses measure the value of coins sold below their acquisition price. This metric is often used to gauge capitulation.
CryptoQuant indicated that the broader trend does not yet confirm a final bottom.
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CryptoQuant stated that its model places the “ultimate bear-market bottom” near $55,000.
The estimate is based on historical patterns and valuation metrics. The firm emphasized that such levels are not guaranteed outcomes.
It also noted that market bottoms typically take time to form. Past cycles showed that recovery phases followed extended consolidation periods. Quick reversals were less common at major cycle lows.
CryptoQuant said the current structure suggests more time may be needed.
The firm continues to track onchain indicators for signs of deeper stress. For now, it maintains that Bitcoin has not yet reached a confirmed bear market bottom.
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