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Bitcoin is stepping into a new era where its movements can no longer be explained by crypto-native events. Instead, BTC has become increasingly intertwined with the global business cycle, reacting to shifts in institutional positioning. As the market matures, BTC behaves less like a speculative outlier and more like a macro-sensitive asset that rises and falls with the broader economic pulse.
The correlation between the business cycle and Bitcoin has never been clearer, and the latest chart has made the connection harder to ignore. According to a well-known crypto news analysis on X, CryptosRus, this chart overlays BTC price action with the broader macro business cycle, and the alignment is almost striking.
Currently, BTC appears to be approaching a cycle bottom that mirrors previous macro business-cycle lows. What makes this setup compelling is the record-long pre-parabolic phase in BTC history. If this pattern continues, the next major expansion phase may be closer than expected.
The market is entering a meaningful turning point. The Co-founders of Glassnode, Swissblock, and censeAG, Negentropic, stated that the Treasury General Account (TGA) drain began on November 14th, and historically, its liquidity flow leads Bitcoin by roughly one week. During the 2019 government shutdown, BTC found its bottom and began recovering within 12 days as liquidity started normalizing.
This recent stretch has been the most challenging phase of the liquidity squeeze, and its peak effect has hit this week. The government’s reopening of an estimated $150 billion in excess TGA liquidity is providing a meaningful tailwind as it enters the markets. With the economic data on pause during the government shutdown, the near-term repricing has been influenced by uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the Nvidia earnings next week will offer the next clear signal for risk. “The worst of the squeeze is likely behind us, and the setup is improving. Patience is key,” Negentropic noted.
Brian Rose, the founder and host of LondonRealTV, has also offered an insight into the current market setup, stating that the Federal Reserve has officially announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). At the same time, the US government is reopening and unleashing more than $100 billion of pent-up liquidity directly back into the system. According to Brian, BTC sentiment is the worst he has seen in years.
In the short term, there’s fear around recessionary jobs data, while in the mid-term, there are real catalysts for liquidity. However, as long as nothing is breaking, the market can handle bad data. This is a strange mix of despair and fresh money. Historically, the extreme pessimism combined with liquidity injections has been the exact setup where rallies begin.
