The weight of seasonality on the bitcoin cycle
Historically, September has rarely been favorable to bitcoin: increased volatility, false breakouts, and often negative performances make it a tricky month for investors. Yet, these late-summer consolidation phases have often served as a springboard for the autumn recovery. In the current cycle, which began in the fall of 2022, September lows resemble major bottoms that statistically precede the start of a much more constructive phase. The fourth quarter is indeed the one where bitcoin traditionally shows its best performances, notably thanks to renewed buying flows in October and November. This cyclical setup fuels the scenario of a final leg up before the expected exhaustion of the current bullish cycle and the onset of a longer corrective phase, anticipated for 2026. In other words, entering the last quarter often constitutes the most favorable moment to capture the market’s ultimate bullish momentum.
The decisive role of global liquidity
Beyond bitcoin’s seasonality, the fourth quarter of 2025 could benefit from a key macroeconomic factor: the shift of the Treasury General Account (TGA), the U.S. Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve. This mechanism is essential to understanding global liquidity: when the Treasury issues bonds to fill its account, it drains cash from the markets, reducing risk appetite. This liquidity drain has weighed in recent months on financial assets, including bitcoin. But once this replenishment is complete, money is gradually reinjected into the economy through public spending, creating the opposite effect: improved financial conditions and a return of flows toward risky markets. The timeline suggests this shift will occur starting in October, right in the heart of bitcoin’s most favorable seasonal period.
A rare alignment of technical and fundamental factors
If we combine bitcoin’s historical cyclicality with this liquidity dynamic, the last quarter of 2025 appears as a strategic window for investors. The market could benefit from a doubly supportive environment: on the one hand, statistically favorable seasonality attracting short-term capital, and on the other, a macroeconomic context where abundant liquidity sustains risk appetite. Added to this are structural elements such as the reduced supply after the halving and growing demand fueled by ETFs, which reinforce this segment of the cycle’s potential. In this context, the fourth quarter is not just a repetition of past trends: it could mark the peak of a bullish cycle that began three years earlier, offering a final valuation opportunity before the establishment of a more enduring bear market in 2026.
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