Data from the Bitcoin derivatives market can be used to fine-tune and calibrate Polymarket prediction odds.
Right now, Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin (BTC 5.13%) only a 12% chance of hitting $150,000 by the end of the year. Given Bitcoin’s current price of $68,000, there’s basically a 1-in-8 chance of Bitcoin soaring in value by 120% to close out the year.
If you’re thinking about investing in Bitcoin, are those odds that you’re willing to take? To answer that question, it’s helpful to consider several key factors.
Expecting any asset to soar in value by 100% or more in a single year is a lot to ask. But not so much for Bitcoin. In the period from 2012 to 2025, Bitcoin delivered triple-digit returns in seven of those years. That’s half of the time.
The high-water mark came back in 2013, when Bitcoin soared by 5,428%. But even as recently as 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin turned in triple-digit returns. In 2023, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 157%, and in 2024, Bitcoin soared by 125%.
Moreover, Bitcoin never had back-to-back losing years during that time period. Bitcoin was down slightly in 2025, so that would seem to suggest that a winning year is on tap for 2026.
So let’s reframe the odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year. Instead of a 1-in-8 chance of that happening, what if it’s closer to a 1-in-2 chance?
In many ways, event contracts traded in prediction markets are really just a new type of financial derivative. Just like futures or options, they can be used to speculate on asset prices, or they can be used to hedge existing positions.
That’s why it’s always worth taking a look at what’s happening in the Bitcoin derivatives market. There, incredibly sophisticated investors armed with MBAs and powerful computers are constantly pricing Bitcoin far out into the future.
And there, the picture may not be as dire as it does in the prediction markets. The market to watch is the one for call options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 2.80%), which is the leading Bitcoin ETF in the world. It’s also a big favorite of institutional investors when it comes to managing exposure to the crypto market.
Right now, crypto market sentiment is near an all-time low. My go-to metric here is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has a current reading of 14 out of 100. Any number under 20 is considered to be “extreme fear,” so right now, traders are very scared of what comes next.
That might help to explain why they are only giving Bitcoin a 12% chance of hitting $150,000 this year. After four straight months of crypto price declines, they are not in any mood to talk about Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs. Most likely, they are hunting for investment alternatives elsewhere.
So here’s my take: Based on past historical performance and current market sentiment, the 12% odds set by Polymarket appear to be too low. The time to buy is when others are fearful, which is why I’m loading up on Bitcoin in 2026.
