Macro support exists through rate cuts and easing, yet Wintermute warns U.S. policy and political news will likely drive the next major crypto moves.
The crypto market is starting to calm down after several weeks of wild price swings. In a new update from November 10, 2025, crypto trading firm and market maker Wintermute said traders are beginning to feel more confident and willing to take small risks again. Still, the firm noted that Bitcoin (BTC) needs to climb closer to its record high before altcoins see a real and lasting comeback.
The broader tone of the market has shifted, not in direction but in confidence. “The dust from the October washout has mostly settled,” Wintermute noted, adding that while crypto continues to lag behind broader risk assets, the tone “feels less fragile.”
Traders are regaining confidence as markets digest political and fiscal developments, particularly the U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “stimi” rebate, which briefly reignited risk sentiment before being reframed as a tax break. Despite the policy shift, the reminder that fiscal support remains an option helped boost short-term optimism.
“The crypto market’s rebound reflects traders’ positioning for a more normalized macro environment after several weeks of liquidity stress,” Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEx told The Crypto Times. “The combination of a tentative U.S. government shutdown resolution and renewed fiscal stimulus expectations has revived appetite for risk across digital assets.”
Bitcoin has been trading steadily between $105,000 and $107,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is holding around $3,700. Both coins have managed to stay strong even though money is still leaving crypto ETFs. Some altcoins bounced back early in the week, but the recovery wasn’t even across the board.
The GMCI-30 index went up by merely 0.7% while other sectors, such as DePIN projects (+22%), Layer-2 networks (+13%), mid-sized coins (+15%), and AI tokens (+9.6%) witnessed big jumps. DeFi tokens gained about 8.8%, while Layer-1s slipped by 1%, showing that investors are still being careful about where they put their money.
Moreover, Wintermute highlighted that market breadth remains extremely narrow. Only a few names, like Filecoin (FIL), Arweave (AR), and Fetch.AI (FET), carried most of the performance. “Narrative breakouts still feel forced,” the firm explained, suggesting that thin pockets of momentum remain fragile and prone to quick reversals.
“This market cycle’s altseason is taking a different form,” Carola noted. “Broad, indiscriminate capital flows into all altcoins appear unlikely; instead, positioning is more calculated, selective, and data-driven compared to past cycles. Sustaining this momentum will depend on continued macro stabilization and liquidity support — both from monetary policy signals and ETF inflows into December.”
The economic environment is still helping riskier assets. Interest rates are being cut, tightening has stopped, and global easing continues. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rate is dropping along with other policy moves. Still, crypto isn’t reacting as much. Speculative coins have lost some momentum, and rallies stay small and uneven. So, investors are sticking mostly with Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than smaller, riskier tokens.
Historically, altcoins perform best when Bitcoin trades within 10-20% of its all-time high. At present, Bitcoin sits around 16% below its peak, meaning that spillover flows have not yet started. Wintermute’s data shows that when BTC drops closer to $100,000, the probability of it outperforming altcoins rises to 58%. Consequently, this suggests that the current setup favors majors, not smaller tokens.
A few blue-chip tokens — such as HYPE, ENA, and UNI — continue to outperform on relative strength, boosted by regulatory clarity and talk of U.S. market reopening. Still, the broader altcoin complex “trades like an options market,” Wintermute said, with short bursts of momentum and little follow-through.
“If Bitcoin consolidates above $105,000 and liquidity continues expanding, ETH could retest $4,000, SOL may challenge $180, and XRP could approach $2.5 by late November. Privacy tokens are also positioned to remain beneficiaries as long as self-custody and financial autonomy remain central market narratives,” Carola added.
For the next phase, majors must lead. The structure looks cleaner, macro conditions are favorable, and the market feels ready to build again. Yet, the next wave of volatility will likely stem from U.S. policy and political headlines, not technical positioning.
