Key points:
- Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have stalled despite favorable inflation data, as the U.S. maintains tariffs on China, analysts report.
- Key support levels now include the $100,000 mark and the 2025 yearly open.
- Significant sell-side liquidity continues to build on exchange order books, with major resistance extending up to $120,000.
Bitcoin must steer clear of dips below $100,000 as markets react to uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade deal.
According to new analysis from Keith Alan, co-founder of trading platform Material Indicators, the 2025 yearly open also serves as a critical “line in the sand” for bullish momentum.
Bitcoin analyst warns: 55% tariff “won’t be a pleasant ride”
Bitcoin remains in consolidation just below its all-time highs as crypto and risk-asset traders assess the impact of the U.S.-China trade deal.
The initial rally lost momentum after it was revealed the agreement includes a 55% tariff on Chinese imports—an increase over current rates.
According to Alan, this development is a more significant catalyst for short-term BTC price movement than Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
“Even with a relatively positive economic report and news of an imminent trade deal with China, both traditional finance and crypto markets saw slight declines on Wednesday,” he noted on X.
“I’m speculating that people aren’t thrilled with the fact that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods jumped to 55% from the 30% that was set for the negotiating period. 55% is going to be felt throughout every aspect of the U.S. economy and it isn’t going to feel good.”
Analyzing order book liquidity, Alan indicated that the broader outlook still supports the bullish case for Bitcoin.
“TLDR: When in doubt, zoom out,” he summarized in another post on X, accompanied by data from one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
“A 1 year view of order book and order flow data in FireCharts shows heavy concentrations of BTC ask liquidity stacked from $111k up to $120k and disproportionately less bid liquidity below it.”
Alan expressed confidence that the market wouldn’t collapse in favor of sellers, even with relatively low bid volume.
“Support tests are healthy,” he concluded.
“Support at the 2025 Yearly Open is my line in the sand.”
Focus shifts to the strength of the $100,000 support level
As previously reported, Bitcoin’s consolidation below its all-time high of $112,000 has helped solidify several key support levels—most notably the $100,000 mark. This level has emerged as a critical psychological threshold, with potential sentiment shifts if it fails to hold.
Alan believes $100,000 will remain a pivotal level even through future bear markets.
“As I said back in December when Bitcoin first started testing $100K, it’s crucial to see consolidation above that level without any wicks below to confirm the resistance-to-support flip,” he explained.
“More importantly, this will build some structural support that could come into focus during the next bear market.”
