Lets look at the current bull run in Bitcoin from the Nov 2022 low around 16,000.
Major Support resistance – identified at 16000-20000 and at 66000-70000
Waves – there have been 4 impulsive waves and 4 corrective. The last 3 impulsive moves resulted in roughly 50K rise. The corrective moves have been Rectangles or Bull Flags.
Trendline – a supporting trendline can be identified , that has been touched on 3 occasions to date.
Moving Averages – since price has moved above the 200 period moving channel, the 20/50 MAV has stayed in a golden relationship. Note the more responsive 9 MAV has momentarily crossed below the 20 MAV at the low of the corrective cycle. Price also has tested the 50 MAV at each low.
MACD – The slow/fast signal lines crossed the Zero axis in March 23 and has stayed above for the duration. Each golden cross and dead cross approximates 4 weeks from a high or low in price. Additionally, if price moves outside the bollinger bands (signified by grey bars) , a consolidation soon follows. The bearish divergence of price and MACD signal is noted.
Where are we now ?
Primary Trend – Dow would suggest we are still in a Bull Market.
Signals – The MACD had a weekly dead cross on the 25th August 2025. Price been in consolidation since the 14th July 2025. The 9ema space to 20 ema is contracting, but it has not had a dead cross as yet. The 50 MAV sits at 98000. Trendline support 102000-107000.
Where to next ?
Bull Case – primary trend is up and until it bends down, Bitcoin appreciates. Support likely above 95000 and next leg to 150000. MACD golden cross comes in timely, so waiting for this confirmation would assist.
Bear Case – possibly a major correction if the trendline is broken comprehensively to the downside. MACD signal lines crossing below Zero would be the confirmation . The swing low of 75000 and the major support at 70000 would be the obvious projections.
