Bitcoin long-term holders have continued trimming their BTC exposure, with their collective holdings falling to the lowest level since April.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin long-term holders have cut their share of the total supply to 72%, the lowest level since April.
- BTC’s price risks a deeper pullback toward $68,500 if key support levels break.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply returns to April levels
Long-term holders (LTHs) — defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — have reduced their holdings to 14.3 million BTC in December, down from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July, according to Glassnode data.
As a result, the share of Bitcoin supply controlled by long-term holders has fallen to 71.92%, a level last seen in April.
That earlier drop coincided with Bitcoin sliding from its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000 to a low near $74,000. Long-term holders then stepped in to accumulate at lower prices, lifting their share of supply to 76% by July and helping fuel a 65% rally that pushed BTC to record highs around $123,000.
If history repeats, the current pullback — with Bitcoin trading near $84,000 — could once again present a buying opportunity for long-term holders, potentially setting the stage for a recovery to new all-time highs in the months ahead.
Long-term holder supply signals potential capitulation
Looking at the broader picture, LTH supply often experiences sharp declines during retail-driven phases and peak-cycle selling, as seen in 2017 and 2021.
CryptoQuant data shows that on a rolling 30-day basis, LTH supply fell by 1.1 million BTC on Nov. 26 — the second-largest drop on record.
As of Monday, long-term holders have reduced their supply by 761,000 BTC over the past 30 days, indicating that some investors may be capitulating amid growing fears of further price declines.
Whales continue selling, BTC faces downside risk
Over the past 30 days, whales have sold $2.78 billion in Bitcoin, maintaining significant downward pressure on the market.
Bitcoin’s technical outlook weakened after losing support at the 50-week moving average (MA) and the yearly open near $93,300. The BTC/USD pair confirmed a bear flag after breaking below the flag’s lower boundary at $92,000 on Friday.
Key support now lies between the local low of $83,800 on Dec. 1 and the multimonth low of $80,500 on Nov. 21. A breakdown of this zone could trigger a deeper correction toward the bear flag’s measured target near $68,500, aligned with the 200-week MA — representing roughly a 20% drop from current levels.
“BTC has broken down again, confirming the bearish flag,” analyst Nic said in an X post on Tuesday, noting that the next area of “potential support” sits at the 100-week EMA around $85,500.
He added that a break below this level could expose key onchain support zones, including $83,800 — the ETF cost basis — and $81,200, the true market mean, before $80,000 comes into focus.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the 20-day EMA has started to slope downward and the relative strength index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, signaling that bears remain in control.
