Bitcoin appears set to break from its historically strong November performance, though Bitfinex analysts say demand could rebound soon.
November has traditionally been Bitcoin’s best month, with an average return of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass. By contrast, October ended down 3.69%, despite usually generating average gains of about 19.92%, raising questions about whether seasonal trends remain reliable.
“We are also on track to close November in the red,” Bitfinex analysts noted in a Tuesday report, as Bitcoin’s price traded 20.60% below the month’s opening level.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $87,305, according to CoinMarketCap.
“In the current quarter, historic seasonal trends have not held up,” Bitfinex analysts noted.
Interest from Bitcoin whales, however, appears to be gradually rising.
The mixed signals have left traders uncertain. Earlier this month, Merlin The Trader suggested that weak sentiment following October’s decline could set the stage for a stronger November.
“Low sentiment. Bullish seasonality. The perfect setup,” he wrote in an X post on Nov. 3.
Bitfinex analysts highlighted that this marks only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin’s price has dropped below the lower band of the short-term holders’ cost-basis model.
Short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days—have an average realized price of $86,787, according to CoinGlass.
The analysts attributed the recent decline to market froth, pointing out that buying activity around $106,000 and $118,000 had been unusually heavy. As a result, a deeper layer of holders is now “capitulating at a loss.”
Looking ahead, Bitfinex sees two potential scenarios: either a “meaningful resurgence in demand” or a “longer and potentially deeper accumulation phase.”
Some signs, however, suggest demand among Bitcoin whales is gradually picking up again. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment reported in an X post on Tuesday that the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen by 0.47% (91 wallets) since Nov. 11.
Regardless of whether historical seasonal trends hold, December has typically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, averaging returns of 4.75% since 2013.
