New analysis suggests macroeconomic forces are overtaking halvings as key drivers of Bitcoin price cycles.
Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly tracking traditional business cycles rather than responding primarily to halving events, according to new macro-focused analysis.
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With, who holds a PhD in science and engineering, outlined the shift in a post on X.
He argues that what began as a loose relationship has grown significantly stronger since 2016, to the point where the so-called “Bitcoin cycle” is now largely a reflection of broader economic conditions rather than an isolated crypto-driven phenomenon.
Macro Signals Outpacing Halvings in Price Impact
The analyst compared Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior with the overall health of the economy, using indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to assess how economic conditions influence Bitcoin’s market cycles.
According to him, Bitcoin’s behavior shifted from weak associations to a strong alignment with the business cycle around 2016, a period that coincided with the cryptocurrency’s second halving. From that point onward, broader economic forces began to play a more decisive role in shaping price movements.
The correlation, Sminston notes, has continued to strengthen over time, suggesting that macroeconomic trends have become a dominant driver of Bitcoin bull runs. Periods of economic expansion tend to coincide with sustained rallies, while economic slowdowns are increasingly linked to price declines.
Visuals shared in the thread show PMI trends closely tracking Bitcoin’s price path, with expansions supporting rallies and contractions triggering corrections.
At the same time, the analyst cautions that the relationship is not linear. The correlation can weaken temporarily during each cycle, typically easing until Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before resuming its longer-term upward trend.
Why This Matters
The shift suggests that Bitcoin is no longer moving on its own, separate from the global economy. As more institutions enter the market through spot ETFs, corporate holdings, and regulated investment products, Bitcoin is becoming more influenced by interest rates, economic growth, and overall market liquidity.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price cycles may start to look more like those of traditional risk assets, making broader economic signals just as important as crypto-specific events like halvings.
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