Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current bull cycle, with a potential market peak just a few months away, according to market analyst Rekt Capital.
In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital compared the current market structure to previous halving cycles, using historical patterns to pinpoint Bitcoin’s position. His model suggests that Bitcoin tends to peak between 518 and 550 days after each halving—an observation consistent with the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
Based on this framework, the market is now approximately 88% of the way through the typical post-halving period, signaling that Bitcoin is in the latter stages of its cycle. If the trend holds, the next major peak could occur between late September and mid-October 2025.
While some investors believe the current Bitcoin cycle could extend into 2026, market analyst Rekt Capital warns against straying too far from historical patterns. He cautions that doing so may cause investors to miss the prime window of opportunity.
A key characteristic of this cycle, Rekt Capital notes, is the unusually long post-halving reaccumulation phase— the longest in Bitcoin’s history. For eight months following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin traded in a consolidation range.
According to the analyst, this extended consolidation was necessary to counterbalance the strong pre-halving rally, which had pushed Bitcoin’s price ahead of the typical cycle timeline. This pause helped realign the current cycle with historical norms.
What comes next?
With Bitcoin still consolidating just below its all-time high, analyst Rekt Capital noted that similar slowdowns—known as “price discovery corrections”—also occurred at this stage in the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. These phases of reduced momentum often preceded strong rallies into the final leg of the bull market.
However, as the cycle matures, Rekt Capital emphasized that the risk-to-reward dynamic begins to shift. While some upside potential may still exist, the likelihood of significant gains diminishes, and the risk of a major correction increases. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced post-peak drawdowns of 60–70%, highlighting the need for caution and risk management.
He also addressed the idea of cycle extensions, acknowledging that previous cycles have stretched by around 30 days beyond the typical peak window. Still, he warned that relying on such extensions to delay taking profits could be risky.
“The danger is that if we keep moving the goalpost, eventually we risk missing the bull market top,” he said.
With that in mind, Rekt Capital advised investors to treat any time beyond the historical peak window as “bonus time”—not a guaranteed opportunity for more upside. He urged a shift in focus toward securing profits, protecting gains, and resisting the temptation of newer narratives that aren’t grounded in historical precedent.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading just above $108,840 after a steady climb over the past week.
