Bitcoin’s year-end rally to $90,000 showed signs of stalling amid weak demand and subdued on-chain activity. However, a new technical setup indicates momentum could pick up if the BTC/USD pair breaks decisively above the $90,000 level.
Key takeaways:
- Renewed demand and buying from U.S. investors will be crucial to fuel a New Year rally for Bitcoin.
- The next key hurdle is $90,000 — a decisive break above this level could set the stage for a BTC rally into 2026.
Bitcoin apparent demand turns negative
Bitcoin’s apparent demand has turned negative, falling to its lowest level since October as traders and investors adopted a risk-off stance heading into the New Year.
Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric shows demand dropping sharply over the past two weeks, reaching -3,491 BTC on Monday — levels not seen since Oct. 21.
The metric had remained positive since Nov. 6, peaking around 18,700 BTC on Nov. 26, before reversing sharply. The current negative reading indicates weakening demand for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance — has fallen sharply over the past two weeks.
The index has dropped from 0.031 on Dec. 11 to its current value of -0.08, reflecting weaker buying pressure on the U.S. exchange.
The Coinbase Premium is a key gauge of U.S. retail demand, with negative values signaling increased selling pressure.
“The Coinbase $BTC Premium Index is still showing deep red bars, indicating that U.S. selling pressure remains elevated,” analyst Mv_Crypto noted in a recent X post, adding:
“Until this metric recovers, approaching the long side requires extreme caution.”
Bitcoin price needs $90K to spark a 2026 rally
As Cointelegraph reported, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows, with $782 million withdrawn last week alone, reflecting a risk-off stance among institutional investors.
A sustained rally into 2026 will likely require renewed demand, including a return of spot ETF inflows to bolster buying pressure.
Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD trading 6.6% below its yearly open of $93,300, putting the cryptocurrency at risk of its first post-halving “red” year.
Bitcoin’s bullish outlook now depends on overcoming resistance at $90,000, which served as strong support in early December. The price has been rejected four times at this level since Dec. 15.
However, with support still holding at $84,000, momentum could return once bulls reclaim the $90,000–$92,000 zone.
Zooming out, crypto analyst Jelle noted a “potential hidden bullish divergence” on the monthly chart, hinting at a possible upward breakout.
“Bitcoin needs to end the month in the green to lock in; close above $90,360 and we’re golden.”
Captain Faibik shared a chart indicating that the $90,000 level aligns with the upper trendline of a descending broadening wedge on the eight-hour timeframe.
A breakout from this pattern could propel Bitcoin toward the wedge’s measured target of $122,000.
“If the breakout is successful, January could be a bullish month.”
Other analysts believe that Bitcoin could continue with its range-bound price action until volatility returns and a cleaner chart pattern emerges.
