Bitcoin is slipping into bearish territory as institutional demand cools and key market indicators turn negative, according to data from analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Market conditions for BTC are now the “most bearish” seen within the current bull cycle, which began in January 2023, CryptoQuant said in its latest weekly report shared with Cointelegraph.
The firm’s Bull Score Index has dropped to an extreme bearish reading of 20 out of 100, while Bitcoin’s price has fallen well below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 — a critical technical threshold that also signaled the onset of the 2022 bear market.
The weakness coincides with fading institutional appetite, reflected by slower accumulation from corporate Bitcoin buyers such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy and muted inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Corporate Bitcoin demand continues to decline
Even Strategy’s latest acquisition of 8,178 BTC ($835 million) — its biggest buy since July 2025 — remains smaller than many of its earlier large-scale purchases, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted Wednesday on X.
“Treasury companies have basically stopped buying; some have even sold part of their holdings,” Moreno said, pointing to firms like Metaplanet, whose last recorded purchase was in September.
Alongside declining corporate accumulation, Bitcoin ETFs are also feeling pressure. Year-to-date inflows have fallen to $27.4 billion — 52% lower than last year’s $41.7 billion total, according to CoinShares data.
Key market drivers now “off the cards”
Reflecting on the catalysts that previously fueled the bull cycle, CryptoQuant pointed to Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory, which helped send Bitcoin above $100,000 for the first time by early December.
In 2025, the debut of several Bitcoin Treasury Companies drove BTC past $120,000 in August. But those forces have since faded.
“Those catalysts are now gone,” the report notes, adding:
“What would be a catalyst strong enough to reaccelerate Bitcoin demand in 2026? Major developments seem off the cards (US Gov Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) or highly discounted by the market (Fed lowering interest rates further).”
The current downturn may also fit within Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, mirroring previous periods such as 2014–2017 and 2018–2021, CryptoQuant noted. Under that framework, the current cycle (2022–2025) is nearing its endpoint.
“Does this imply a rapid Bitcoin price collapse? No,” the report said. “So far, Bitcoin is experiencing a 28% drawdown and has moved toward major support levels between $90,000 and $92,000,” it added, noting:
“Even in bear markets, prices can rally 40%–50% in the span of a few months. However, now that the price of Bitcoin is below its 365–day MA, this level becomes a strong price resistance ($102.6K).”
CryptoQuant’s report was released just hours before Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 on Wednesday, sliding to $88,400 — its lowest level since April 2025, according to Coinbase data. The price has since recovered slightly and was trading around $91,650 at the time of publication.
