Key points:
- New analysis suggests Bitcoin bulls may benefit from the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate hikes, based on historical patterns.
- Declining open interest on Binance, combined with BTC/USD forming higher lows, may support continued upward momentum.
- Order book liquidity trends have prompted analysts to predict a short squeeze that could push Bitcoin toward the $106,000 mark.
Research suggests Bitcoin is likely to exhibit “bullish tendencies” following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate hikes.
In a June 19 “Quicktake” blog post, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant noted fresh tailwinds emerging for Bitcoin’s price movement.
Bitcoin poised to benefit from Fed policy and Binance open interest trend
CryptoQuant believes 2025 could offer an especially bullish environment for Bitcoin, which has historically performed well during periods when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes.
At its June 18 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged, with markets expecting any policy shift to come in Q3.
“Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady during its most recent policy meeting, the Bitcoin market has shown a complex set of signals, especially on Binance,” noted CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha.
Taha highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin’s price movement and Binance open interest (OI)—the total number of active derivatives contracts, including both longs and shorts.
“As shown in the Binance BTC Price & Open Interest Change chart, Bitcoin has consistently formed equal lows just above $104,000,” he explained. “This level has served as a strong demand zone, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure.”
“However, in contrast, the open interest on Binance has recorded a series of lower lows, showing progressive deleveraging across the derivatives market.”
Despite several retests of price support, falling open interest paired with a dovish Fed stance generally strengthens the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
“The timing of this market reset aligns with the Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes — a macroeconomic signal that frequently serves as a tailwind for risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” the Quicktake report concluded.
“Historically, BTC has shown bullish tendencies following rate stabilization, especially when paired with signs of liquidation exhaustion and fading open interest.”
BTC shorts set the stage for a potential $106,000 short squeeze
Short-term BTC price outlooks remain bullish as BTC/USD trades within a range.
According to monitoring platform CoinGlass, the likelihood of a short squeeze is rising, with significant ask liquidity building near the $106,000 level.
Earlier, separate liquidity analysis cautioned that a drop below $104,000 could trigger a “rug pull” due to order book spoofing.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass’s Derivatives Risk Index (CDRI) hovered around neutral levels, indicating a gradual rise in liquidation risk.
