When I look at the 30-minute time frame since December 11th, the story has been a step-like transition from a higher pricing zone into a more defined trading range. Price rotated around the mid area near 91,750, close to where the December 12 VWAP closed, and then shifted down into a range whose midpoint is closer to 88,500. We have largely been living inside that 88,500-centered regime since roughly December 14.
For the year 2026, major banks predict Bitcoin will reach a six-figure price by 2026 as it moves from a risky experiment to a mainstream investment. This growth is driven by the ease of buying Bitcoin through regular stock accounts and the creation of clearer government rules that make big corporations feel safe investing. Additionally, as banks use Bitcoin’s underlying technology to modernize traditional finance, the digital currency is expected to become a permanent and highly valuable fixture in the global economy. Ethereum’s technology is also advancing and 2026 should be bullish, IMHO, for ETH, despite the last months’ correction. But in today’s bitcoin analysis, we are not looking that much ahead, and more looking at a very near resistance.
This is still a range market first, trend market second.
With Bitcoin futures already up roughly 3% to 3.5% on the day, it is not surprising to see sellers leaning into the upper portion of the range again. In ranges, the market often punishes late momentum chasing near the edges.
A bullish continuation case requires more than a quick poke above 91,000. The trigger is a sustained acceptance above 91,000, meaning price holds above it and does not snap back into the range.
If that happens, the next upside magnets become:
From an orderFlow Intel perspective (without getting too granular), the earlier push did show buyer initiative. But the market needs to prove it can keep that initiative once it meets the supply sitting at the range highs.
The bear case is more immediate if the 91,000 area keeps rejecting price and the market fails to hold today’s developing balance.
Levels that matter on the way down:
Recent order flow behavior suggests a subtle shift: after an initial burst of buying, upside momentum faded, and it started taking less participation to push price lower than it took to push price higher earlier. That is often an early warning of a bearish drift inside a range.
Another important dynamic is that activity near recent lows looks somewhat unresolved. When an auction does not fully complete at a low, the market often revisits that area before a cleaner directional move develops. That creates a natural downside pull even without aggressive selling.
Because we are still in a defined range with many nearby levels, traders typically treat targets as partial-profit zones rather than expecting one clean trend leg. If you are trading this as a range, consider taking partial profits into the first one or two targets and tightening risk. After TP2 is reached, move the stop to entry (breakeven) to protect gains and manage the runner. Read more about trading with the tradeCompass principles.
Slightly bearish while below 91,000, mainly because the range ceiling is still doing its job and the order flow has cooled after the earlier push.
This is a decision support tool, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
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