Prediction market users see a 66% chance Bitcoin’s next major move is toward $100K, not a crash.
Bitcoin is struggling to find its footing near the $88,000 mark even as traditional safe-haven assets reach historic milestones.
The leading crypto is down 2.1% over the last 24 hours, currently trading at just under $88,000, according to data from price aggregator CoinGecko. In stark contrast, gold reached a peak of $5,602 per ounce Thursday before a slight retracement.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies — continued its year-long slide, hitting a low of 96.38 as of Thursday.
Since assets are typically priced in U.S. dollars, a collapsing dollar index should logically inflate the valuation of risk and safe-haven assets. However, Bitcoin’s stagnation in 2026 and a sustained downtrend in the last quarter of the previous year have confused investors.
“Bitcoin’s recent stagnation reflects a market that’s still trading macro first, narrative second,” Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, told Decrypt.
While gold and commodities are drawing flows as traditional havens, Bitcoin is currently behaving more like a “high-beta risk asset” — meaning it moves in sync with speculative stocks — rather than a direct hedge against dollar weakness, Cai said.
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin highlights the market’s perception of a long-standing inflation hedge versus a digital gold narrative that is less than two decades old.
When macroeconomic or policy fears rise as they did during Japan’s bond crisis and the NY Fed’s rate check events, “old money” typically flows into the most established exit ramp first, as noted in a previous Decrypt report.
“Gold, as a mature and well-established asset, is unmistakable in the signal it sends,” Ben Caselin, CMO of South African crypto exchange VALR, told Decrypt.
He explained that as more local currencies face pressure and the dollar declines, both assets stand to benefit. “One significant acceleration in gold followed by significant profit-taking is enough to spark a significant Bitcoin rally,” Caselin added.
Still, gold’s rally is not bad news for Bitcoin, nor is the top crypto’s consolidation.
This ‘gold-first’ movement is viewed by some analysts as a leading indicator for Bitcoin, arguing that the massive capital flowing into bullion often precedes a rotation into digital assets as investors seek alternatives to government-issued fiat currencies.
Eric He, LBank’s Community Angel Officer and Risk Control Adviser, argued that Bitcoin “isn’t stalling; it’s coiling for the next explosive leg higher,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency is “poised to reclaim digital-gold status as adoption and clarity accelerate.”
“Short-term macro is favoring physical havens amid fiat erosion,” he added, “but this isn’t a thesis breakdown.”
Market participants remain largely bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory despite the short-term stall. Users of prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, put a 65% chance on Bitcoin’s next major move being a rally toward the $100,000 milestone, rather than a crash back to $69,000.
