Bitcoin risks turning its recent rebound into a classic “bull trap” after being rejected at a key resistance level near $76,000.
Key points:
- Bitcoin is facing weak spot demand on Coinbase alongside a divergence in open interest as prices climb above $75,000.
- Analysts warn that this combination signals underlying structural weakness, raising the risk that the current rebound could stall.
- As a result, any further move toward the $80,000 level is expected to be “challenging.”
BTC market shows weak spot demand
New research from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price rebound may be vulnerable to a reversal.
In a Tuesday QuickTake report, analyst Easy On Chain warned that the market is shifting away from a healthy, spot-driven structure toward an overheated rally fueled primarily by derivatives activity.
Several indicators support this view, including the Coinbase Premium Index — which measures the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and Binance’s BTC/USDT pair.
Despite Bitcoin reaching six-week highs, the index has remained in negative territory, signaling weak demand from U.S. spot buyers.
“In the absence of strong spot buying support, we are seeing a significant divergence between investor groups, where smart money appears to be strategically distributing holdings,” the analyst noted.
Another CryptoQuant contributor, MAC_D, echoed this view, highlighting a clear shift between long-term holders and new market participants.
“Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership,” the analyst wrote in a separate QuickTake post.
However, the more pressing concern lies in open interest (OI), which suggests the market may be in a fragile state.
“On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk,” MAC_D added.
“If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.”
Bitcoin upside faces resistance
Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure in the mid-$70,000 range, a zone that aligns with previous local lows from April 2025.
Data from CoinGlass shows that price momentum stalled within this area of concentrated ask liquidity around $76,000 before reversing lower.
Market participants remain cautious about the prospects for a broader recovery.
In a recent post on X, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics firm Material Indicators, analyzed multiple moving average (MA) trendlines and proprietary indicators to assess the likelihood of a sustained bull-market recovery.
“Bulls are currently attempting to flip resistance at the Q2 2024 Timescape Level, and now psychological resistance at $75K is coming into focus,” he said. “If bulls can push higher, the next targets are the Q2 2025 Timescape Levels at $78.3K and $82.5K.”
“The confluence between the moving averages, Timescapes Levels and the structure add strength to those levels, and there is a lot of ask liquidity laddered between here and there that will make that move challenging.”
Trader Mister Crypto also drew parallels between current price action in Bitcoin and earlier movements in 2026, when BTC/USD staged a relief bounce before ultimately breaking below key support levels.
