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I try not to get involved when Bitcoin is going sideways. This has been going sideways for six weeks, but some technical developments have happened and you tell me, is it time to go long finally?
Well, we were just talking before that you astutely pointed out there was a big options expiration on Friday. And before that, um most of the dealer community was basically long optionality and they were uh their hedging activity was helping to kind of pin Bitcoin into where it’s resided in the sort of the high 80s for the last couple of weeks.
It’s been kind of a numbing and confounding market, right? since uh this liquidity event that the market had in on October 10th.
Big sell-off, yeah.
Right, big sell off and big liquidity event that kind of really spooked the market pretty good and uh drew out a lot of the fast money into other uh places. has given us basically a heartbreak quarter, which has ended a year where a lot of the slow money progress uh in uh integration and legislation and building and M&A has been great, but uh the fast money seems to have evacuated from uh from the token space.
So, um I guess the best way to put it is, I I think Bitcoin and and the rest of the crypto market, its attention span seems to be a quarter. Things happen in quarters. We’ve had almost exactly a solid quarter of downtrend, so this too shall pass.
Yeah, I I like that because guess what? It’s the end of the quarter. And uh I think uh the first quarter has been a pretty good time, the beginning of the first quarter has been a pretty good time to buy Bitcoin. And if we go to the Wi-Fi Interactive, I’m just going to show a chart real quickly because I was mentioning to you also, I like the technicals. Here’s a year to date in Bitcoin and we got a pretty steep trend line and you got to be careful about these sometimes, but we have just crossed over that. So you gently step over that.
Um I would point out here, 75,000 is the low of the year. I’m going to put a two-year chart, that was the year to date. And that so here’s that same uh level I just highlighted 75,000. It was also the peak, the prior year. So, uh kind of a line in the sand for a lot of investors. Where do you see the money coming into Bitcoin? Uh the ETF, I keep hearing all these uh all these um new companies finally on-loading, onboarding Bitcoin onto their platforms, anything there?
I think the the bullish case for Bitcoin is that its investment thesis is intact. I think uh what’s happening a lot with other tokens, right? With everything from Ethereum all the way down is people are starting to scratch their heads and say, ‘I get that there’s going to be more adoption of blockchain technology, but what does this token have to do with it? How do I relate those two things in to an investment thesis that gets me in for the long term?’
Bitcoin on its own, it’s fine. Store of value, it moves from one place to another. It has a very simple purpose. and therefore people who want to invest for the long term can kind of count on that. Uh the precious metals have taken away a lot of the fire in terms of the debasement trade, but there are a lot of technical reasons and geopolitical reasons that are driving those movements as well.
So, I think uh you point out some really interesting levels of that $75,000 level which was uh due to some uh flush outs of perps back during the taper tantrum back in Q1 of last year, right? That was kind of a region that where we haven’t had a lot of price discovery. Remember after the election in 2024, Bitcoin raced from about 69,000 or, you know, pretty pretty close to very quickly. right? So there wasn’t a lot of kind of price discovery and kind of settlement there. things just raced up.
So that that’s a tender area, that sort of 85 to $75,000 level. We’ve held on to 85 pretty well. We’ve seen uh as you pointed out overnight, whether it’s been Microstrategy buying or option dealers being short gamma, that the race up to 90 can be pretty fast, and then we’ll have to see where things go from there.
We don’t have a lot of the uh baggage that we did in the first quarter of 2025 with uh the inauguration and then with an immediate tariff policy. Um things seem a little smoother with a little bit more precise expectations for the Fed. So if things roll out pretty slowly and a trend begins to develop, uh I think uh investors can start to watch that and make their decisions there.
