Key levels and indicators determine market participants’ scenario-based strategies.
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Bitcoin $115,636 failed for the third time to stay above the long-term trend line drawn from the 2017-2021 peaks after a sharp pullback last week. Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole noted that this structure has turned into resistance, limiting the upward momentum. The technical outlook suggests that the risk of dropping to the $100,000 level remains on the agenda, with the price trading around $115,000 at the time the report was prepared. According to the analyst’s assessment, a close above $121,800 is necessary for the selling pressure to reverse.
ContentsCritical Trend Support Line Turns into ResistancePossible Scenarios for Bitcoin Critical Trend Support Line Turns into Resistance
Godbole highlighted that the long wicks observed in candles throughout the month indicate significant power loss. He pointed out that the monthly MACD histogram is at a lower level compared to the December-January rally. These indicators reveal weakening upward movement, and sell signals are becoming more apparent around the historical trend line. Failing to hold above the trend line on the third attempt, the price turned the resistance area into a crucial battleground in the cycle.
On the daily chart, the sharp turn from the upper band of the expanding channel formation is accompanied by a negative shift in both the standard (12,26,9) and long-term (50,100,9) MACD histograms. This pairing indicates that the easiest path could remain downward, and recoveries might remain limited for now. The 200-day simple moving average at $107,000 stands out as the first defense line, while the possibility of a deeper test toward the lower band remains on the table.
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin
The fragile outlook for Bitcoin maintains the possibility of a drop below $100,000 with a gradual pullback towards the lower threshold of the expanding triangle formation. Holding above the interim support of $107,000 may soften the selling waves, but it might not be enough to reverse the weakening momentum alone. Risk management remains central for market participants in a phase where volatility could increase.
According to Godbole, in the upward scenario, maintaining a position above $121,800 could invalidate the series of descending highs. This would break the trend line-induced pressure and open a new momentum window. Otherwise, rebound purchases might remain short-lived. In the medium-term outlook, downward risks weigh heavier. Data and technical thresholds related to current pricing require decision-makers to adopt a scenario-based approach.
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