Bitcoin (BTC) heads into March’s monthly close, at risk of recording its sixth consecutive month of losses.
- Bitcoin started the week around the $65,000 level, with traders anticipating a potential bear flag breakdown that could mirror previous declines.
- Macro sentiment remains heavily influenced by developments in Iran, including rumors of a possible US ground invasion.
- March remains a pivotal month for Bitcoin, as it teeters on the brink of its first six-month losing streak since 2018.
- Large holders, or whales, have begun reducing their BTC exposure, adding pressure to mid-term price action.
- Meanwhile, demand within the current trading range remains relatively weak, lacking the strength needed to support a meaningful trend reversal.
Bitcoin dropped to around $65,000 ahead of Sunday’s weekly close following late selling pressure, before staging a modest rebound.
Data from TradingView shows $67,500 emerging as a key level for Monday, though traders remain cautious, maintaining a risk-off stance in the short term.
In its latest post to Telegram channel subscribers, analytics resource Technical Crypto Analyst wrote:
“BTC is showing a clear shift in structure on the 4H, with price forming lower highs and losing the 68–69k support, which now acts as resistance; this confirms short-term bearish momentum, and unless price quickly reclaims 69–70k, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the 65k demand zone.”
Last week, it was reported that $70,000 is quickly turning into a strong resistance level, while a key long-term trend line around $68,300 has failed to hold as support.
“Bitcoin’s local uptrend is over—as expected—and price is beginning to move lower again,” trader Jelle said on Monday.
“Testing the previous lows as resistance as we speak; bears are back in the drivers’ seat.”
Other traders have also pointed to the ongoing breakdown of Bitcoin’s second bear flag of 2026—a pattern that has already fueled predictions of BTC falling below $50,000.
“Repeating the exact same bear flag breakdown we saw in January,” trader Roman noted.
Iran conflict shakes markets as inflation concerns grow
Broader markets remain on edge as developments in the US-Iran conflict continue to unfold heading into April.
US President Donald Trump described the start of the week as a “big day” militarily, amid reports suggesting preparations for a potential ground invasion of Iran.
Asian stock markets opened sharply lower on Monday as the effects of the ongoing oil supply disruption began to weigh on sentiment.
“The continued tensions mean tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, putting pressure on global energy markets and creating uncertainty around access to fertilizers for agriculture,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said in its latest Market Mosaic newsletter.
“That’s weighing on the S&P 500, which has now closed out five consecutive weeks with a loss.”
Mosaic noted that the S&P 500’s current losing streak is now its longest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
“The increasing risk of long-term damage to the global economy from elevated energy prices is continuing to weigh on equity markets,” it added.
“But perhaps the most consequential spillover impact is on the outlook for inflation, and implications for interest rates on both the short- and long-end of the yield curve.”
Crypto markets mirrored the downturn in equities toward the end of March, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 diminished. At the same time, recession forecasts for this year climbed to their highest levels since last September.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Monday, which could provide further insight into policymakers’ views on the economic outlook. He is scheduled to take part in a moderated discussion at Harvard University’s Principles of Economics class.
“The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts is increasingly uncertain, while long-term interest rates are also rising amid ongoing inflation concerns,” Mosaic added.
“The 30-year Treasury yield is close to breaking higher from an ominous pattern that could mean sharply higher rates ahead.”
Bitcoin is heading into the end of March with little momentum on the bullish side, as BTC/USD risks closing its sixth straight month in the red.
Data from CoinGlass suggests the outcome is still finely balanced, with a potential “green” monthly close not entirely off the table.
If Bitcoin closes March below its opening price, it would mark its first stretch of six consecutive “red” months since the 2018 bear market.
“Very slow month overall—Bitcoin is essentially flat, much like this time last year,” trader Daan Crypto Trades said, referencing CoinGlass data.
He also pointed out that April has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. “On average, April ranks as Bitcoin’s third-best month for returns,” he noted.
Trader XO highlighted that after Bitcoin’s previous six-month losing streak in early 2019, February delivered an 11% monthly gain.
“If April begins with a dip into the $55K–$60K range, it could set up an attractive mean-reversion long opportunity, in my opinion—though much will depend on the broader macro environment,” they told followers on X.
“That said, the higher timeframe structure remains in control until a clear contextual ‘structural’ shift is confirmed.”
Bitcoin whales are turning more defensive, raising concerns about potential downside pressure on BTC prices.
After a period of “aggressive” accumulation earlier in 2026, large holders are now reassessing their positions, according to data from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
“A clear divergence is emerging—on-chain buying has slowed, while significant inflows to exchanges are increasing,” contributor Sunny Mom wrote in a QuickTake blog post.
“Although the price continues to oscillate around $67K, the data suggests the market is entering another phase of hand-overs (re-distribution).”
CryptoQuant also highlighted a growing share of whale activity in exchange inflows, with large-holder wallets making up an increasing portion of the biggest incoming transactions.
“Additionally, the stablecoin ratio remains low, signaling a slowdown in sidelined capital entering the market,” Sunny Mom added, pointing to broader stablecoin trends.
“Without fresh liquidity, any attempt by whales to realize gains from their previous on-chain accumulation must rely on existing liquidity, making the price highly sensitive to selling pressure.”
Newer holders face a “massive supply overhang”
Offering a more optimistic perspective, onchain analytics firm Glassnode pointed to encouraging demand dynamics at current price levels.
It noted that newer Bitcoin buyers have an aggregate cost basis between $60,000 and $70,000.
“BTC is now sitting at the lower end of this cost basis range ($60K–$70K),” Glassnode said in a post on X Monday.
“Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.”
For a sustained recovery to take shape, demand needs to increase—something that has yet to happen as traders remain cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
“The accumulation structure looks constructive in form, but not yet in strength,” Glassnode noted.
Earlier, Cointelegraph examined the cost bases of different Bitcoin investor groups, including short-term holders (STHs), most of whom are currently holding their BTC at a loss.
Last week, CryptoQuant estimated that STHs control around 5.7 million BTC, with roughly 92% of that supply underwater.
“That represents a massive supply overhang,” it warned.
