Key points:
- Bitcoin is poised for one of its weakest Octobers since 2013.
- In past bull-market years, the cryptocurrency typically posted gains of at least 40% during October.
- Traders are now hoping next week’s Federal Reserve meeting could provide a last-minute boost.
Bitcoin is threatening to post its first negative October since 2018, with BTC/USD currently 2.3% below its monthly open, according to CoinGlass.
Bearish October depends on 4% drop
October 2025 has so far frustrated Bitcoin bulls. An early surge to new all-time highs quickly gave way to a wave of liquidations.
Trading within a tight range of roughly $107,000 to $111,500, Bitcoin still has significant ground to cover before the monthly candle closes.
CoinGlass highlights the gap compared with historical trends: the average October gain since 2013 has been around 20%, which would place Bitcoin above $130,000.
Alternatively, BTC/USD only needs to end October 4% lower to seal its worst performance in 12 years.
The outlook is particularly grim for a bull-market October. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin posted gains of at least 40% during the month. By contrast, its weakest October on record was 2014, with a 13% decline.
Now or never for a rebound
Network economist Timothy Peterson shared new data putting 2025’s BTC price action into context. Charts posted to X this week show that the current bull market is distinctive—but not in a way that will comfort bulls.
At the beginning of October, Peterson noted that most of the month’s upside historically occurs in the latter half.
“Sixty percent of Bitcoin’s full-year performance happens after October 3rd,” he added in research published in September.
Timely news that the U.S. Federal Reserve may signal an end to quantitative tightening (QT) at its Oct. 29 meeting could deliver a “huge signal” to markets, Peterson noted.
Expectations are that the Fed may cut interest rates despite limited new inflation data, potentially creating more favorable conditions for crypto and other risk assets.
