Bitcoin is on course to lock in another negative month, but one analyst says major differences in the current market structure could be a sign of a pending trend reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC) is forming what may prove to be a fifth consecutive red monthly candle, which would be the longest losing streak since 2018. The silver lining is that data suggests that March may prove to be a profitable month for BTC.
Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 15% this month after closing the previous four months in the red.
The last time this happened was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017.
“Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months,” analysts at macro investor outlet Milk Road said in an X post on Thursday.
This led to a reversal with over 316% returns over the following five months, the analysts said, adding:
“If history repeats, the reversal will begin on April 1st.”
Analyzing Bitcoin’s quarterly performance during the 2022 bear market provides a more cautious interpretation of BTC price history. The data shows Bitcoin recorded four consecutive red quarters during that year.
Losses stacked across the four quarters, bringing the total losses to 64% as the BTC/USD pair closed the year at $16,500 from an opening price of $46,230. This marked one of the harshest drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history.
As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and a similar stretch of four losing quarters could extend the weakness below the 15-month low of $60,000.
Analyst Solana Sensei shared a chart that focused on Bitcoin’s weekly performance, with the price printing the fifth candlestick in a row.
This is the longest streak since 2022, making it the 2nd-longest losing streak on record.
In 2022, BTC price saw nine red weeks, dropping to $20,500 from $46,800.
Therefore, while past monthly performance suggests an impending rebound, quarterly and weekly data from 2022 demonstrate that BTC price declines could last longer than expected.
Related: Bitcoin’s consolidation nears ‘turning point’ as $70K comes in focus: Analyst
Veteran analyst Sykodelic argues that Bitcoin’s current bear phase is “fundamentally different” for several reasons, including the monthly RSI having already reached the 2015 and 2018 bear market lows.
Sykodelic said that due to the lack of a true overbought expansion in the monthly RSI during the bull phase, market participants will be misguided to expect a symmetric contraction.
“This is yet again another situation in which we look a lot more like 2020 than any other period in time,” the analyst said in a Thursday post on X, adding:
“I am not seeing anything that tells me we are in the same style bear market as we have had previously, and everyone should be aware of these differences.”
This suggests the current bear cycle is not following historical patterns, and Bitcoin’s bottom and subsequent recovery could catch many traders off guard.
