Bitcoin is on track to record its worst November performance since at least 2019, yet analysts suggest it could pave the way for a strong start to 2026, as some investors may see it as a buying opportunity.
“While November will close in the red for crypto, the capitulation presents an opportunity for savvy investors to start re-entering the market,” said Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG.
“Overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects have been largely cleared out, which gives way for new long-term holders to scale in ahead of a promising new year.”
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 16.9% so far in November, trading around $91,500, approaching the losses seen in November 2019 when it dropped roughly 17.3%, according to CoinGlass.
The cryptocurrency’s worst November remains 2018, when it plummeted 36.5% during the extended bear market following its 2017 peak. More recently, Bitcoin ended November 2022 down 16.2%.
Long-term Bitcoin bullishness persists
“Typically, November is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months,” crypto educator Sumit Kapoor said on Wednesday. However, with only a few days remaining and a slow Thanksgiving weekend ahead, he added that “it’s on track to be the worst November since 2018.”
“Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red.”
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at private markets advisory firm Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that crypto-native investors are “accustomed to a somewhat predictable four-year cycle,” which historically has led to rallies toward year-end, with October, November, and often December finishing in the green.
He noted that this year’s cycle was accelerated by the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. earlier in 2024. “I see this as positive, though it hints at the ever-dangerous ‘this time is different’ narrative, as institutions finally entered in a meaningful way, altering the pace, breadth, and timing of crypto price action,” d’Anethan said.
Monthly candle likely to hold above $93,000
Technical analysts are watching Bitcoin’s monthly close, with a key level at $93,000. Failing to sustain momentum over the weekend could invite further downside.
“With the monthly close approaching, I’ve highlighted the two most relevant levels to watch: $93,401 and $102,437,” analyst CrediBull Crypto said on X. They added that a close above $93,000 “would be a positive sign,” while a close above $102,000 “would be incredibly bullish, though we may need to wait until next month for that.”
BTC was changing hands for $91,600 at the time of writing, having traded flat over the last 24 hours and failing to break resistance just below $92,000 on Thursday.
