Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,292, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Over the week, the market has softened, falling roughly 7%, and down about 16% over the past month. The current price sits approximately 18% below the all-time high of $126,080 reached in early October.
Trading activity has seen a modest uptick. Spot volume over the past 24 hours hit $69.5 billion, a 14.8% increase from the previous day. Futures volumes rose 8% to $107.5 billion, while open interest increased 1.4% to $69.6 billion. Rising open interest amid falling prices often indicates traders are adding positions rather than exiting, potentially extending the current trend.
MVRV Indicates Cooling Momentum, Not a Full Reversal
A Nov. 6 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom points to a divergence in Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which measures unrealized profit across the network. Historically, the MVRV ratio has found support in the 1.7–1.8 range, acting as a “profit floor” since early 2024. Price and sentiment retesting this area would align with the $91,800–$97,200 range.
This technical zone is further reinforced by a large, unfilled CME gap around $92,000. Although Bitcoin’s price climbed earlier in the cycle, unrealized profit margins are compressing, reflected in the current bearish MVRV divergence. This suggests growing buyer caution but does not indicate a confirmed cycle top. A similar divergence occurred in 2017 before Bitcoin’s final parabolic rally.
Corporate accumulation also slowed in October, with firms purchasing around 14,400 BTC, down sharply from September’s 38,035 BTC. Market capitalization of Bitcoin-holding companies relative to their holdings has decreased, signaling heightened investor caution during the recent pullback.
Technical Outlook
The short-term technical outlook remains cautious. Bitcoin is trading below all key short- and long-term moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 37, reflecting a cooling market rather than oversold exhaustion.
The commodity channel index (CCI) and momentum indicators point to early signs of stabilization and value-based buying at current levels. However, the MACD remains negative, and most short- and long-term moving averages are still above the price, indicating that downward trend pressure persists in the near term.
A break above $105,800 could reignite upward momentum, while a failure to maintain support above $97,000 may open the door toward the CME gap near $92,000.
