Bitcoin Nears Crucial Double Candle Close Just Shy of All-Time Highs — Can Bulls Maintain Momentum?
- As June draws to a close, Bitcoin’s price action hints at volatility, with the monthly and quarterly candle closes setting the stage for potential sharp moves.
- BTC/USD would need to reach $104,630 by the end of June to secure its highest-ever monthly close — a significant milestone still out of reach.
- With a quiet week for U.S. macroeconomic data, market focus remains on the Federal Reserve, especially following Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin is facing what analysts are calling a “critical demand deficit,” as buying interest struggles to keep up with heavy distribution from long-term holders.
- Could this mean Bitcoin has just three months left in its current bull cycle?
BTC Price Volatility Surges as Market “Games” Resume
A well-timed surge on June 29 briefly put BTC/USD on course for its highest-ever weekly close above $109,000.
Although that milestone wasn’t reached, Bitcoin remains locked in a steady trading range as both June and Q2 draw to a close, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
As of June 30, BTC/USD had already filled the latest “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market that emerged from weekend price action.
Reflecting on the close near $108,400 on Bitstamp, popular trader Skew credited the late surge in BTC price to a “predatory” algorithmic trading bot.
“Games are being played here thus far but keeping a close eye on flow,” he noted in a post on X.
As part of those “games,” Skew pointed out that the bot’s activity drove the market high enough to trigger the liquidation of a $12 million BTC short position, before the price swiftly retraced.
“This same entity pumped BTC two weeks ago, and the price dumped the very next day,” noted fellow trader BitBull, continuing the discussion.
As previously reported, large-volume traders have been manipulating order book liquidity, fueling a series of price fakeouts in recent months.
A monthly close unlike any other?
With the weekly close missing a new all-time high, attention now shifts to two key candles for BTC/USD.
The upcoming June monthly close will also determine Bitcoin’s Q2 performance, which is currently on pace to deliver strong 30% gains.
Despite a turbulent, headline-driven month, June still appears set to close in the green, according to data from monitoring platform CoinGlass.
Bitcoin traders are thus confident that this month could act as a springboard for a stronger return to form next.
To secure its highest monthly close ever, Bitcoin only needs to hold above $104,630 — giving bulls some breathing room for a roughly 2.9% pullback.
However, the extent of any last-minute volatility may hinge on exchange order-book liquidity.
According to monitoring platform Material Indicators, there are significant price “magnets” both above and below current levels.
“Ask liquidity is concentrated in the $108K–$110K range, while bid liquidity stretches down to $98K, which could invite some volatility over the next 24–48 hours,” the platform noted on X, sharing a snapshot of Binance’s order book.
Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan added that he “expects” another liquidity grab to the downside in the future, despite the prospect of record candle closes.
Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus as Markets Solidify Rate-Cut Expectations
The Independence Day holiday caps what is otherwise a relatively quiet week for U.S. macroeconomic data.
This lull gives crypto and risk-asset traders a chance to reflect on the growing rift between Federal Reserve policy and political pressure.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell and several officials remain firm in their stance against cutting interest rates prematurely, former President Donald Trump has continued to criticize the central bank’s approach.
Trump has gone as far as calling Powell a “stupid person” and accusing the Fed of delaying much-needed rate cuts — even fueling speculation about Powell’s possible removal.
“For now, we’re in a good position to wait and gather more information about the economy’s likely trajectory before making any changes to our policy stance,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress as he began two days of testimony last week.
While markets largely rule out a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in late July, the odds of a 0.25% cut in September have climbed to 75%, according to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
As previously reported, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michaelle Bowman suggested she might support a July rate cut if upcoming data justifies it.
This week, the spotlight turns to the July 3 release of nonfarm payrolls — the key data point that could influence that decision.
“Critical demand deficit”
As Q2 wraps up, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are raising red flags for analysts.
A surge in reactivated dormant coins, along with steady issuance from miners, is now outstripping demand from new buyers, according to recent research.
In a June 29 “Quicktake” blog post, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant called the situation a “critical demand deficit.”
“The flow of coins onto the market from miners and profit-taking LTHs is now greater than what new buyers are purchasing,” noted contributor Crazzyblockk.
“This is a bearish development for two reasons: It directly increases the ‘for sale’ supply, putting downward pressure on the price. Selling by LTHs, often considered ‘smart money,’ can signal that experienced players believe the market has reached a local top.”
CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric — which measures buyer pressure after accounting for long-term holder distribution and newly mined coins — has turned negative on a 30-day rolling basis.
The last time this metric dipped below zero was in April, as BTC/USD was recovering from multi-month lows below $75,000.
“As a result, the market is in a fragile position,” CryptoQuant warned. “Any upward moves from here may face strong resistance from the excess supply, and support levels could prove weaker than expected.”
“While not a guarantee, this on-chain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery.”
The Clock Is Ticking on Bitcoin’s Bull Market
Bitcoin’s next bull market peak could be just months away, according to the latest analysis from popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
Drawing on historical price cycle patterns, Rekt Capital suggests the anticipated blow-off top might arrive sooner than many expect.
“If Bitcoin is going to peak in its Bull Market in September/October 2025, in line with historical Halving cycles…,” he wrote in a recent post on X, one of several exploring the topic.
“That’s only 2-3 months away.”
Rekt Capital pointed out that in 2024, BTC/USD reached new all-time highs earlier than expected, even before April’s block subsidy halving. However, history suggests that final cycle peaks tend to occur right on schedule.
“In 2024, Bitcoin was ahead of its cycle by 260 days when it surged to new all-time highs before the Halving,” he explained. “Since then, that acceleration has dropped back to zero.”
“In fact, what if Bitcoin is now experiencing a slowing down in its cycle?”
If a slowdown is indeed underway, BTC/USD may soon compensate with strong upward momentum and a return to price discovery sooner rather than later.
“It’s true that Bitcoin’s first Price Discovery Correction has lasted longer than usual,” Rekt Capital noted. “But Bitcoin typically overperforms in some phases of the cycle and underperforms in others.”
“So when Bitcoin breaks out into a parabolic rally, it would probably drastically reduce whatever ‘cycle extension’ BTC brought on itself over the past several months.”
