Bitcoin started October on a strong note, gaining nearly 9% week-on-week and holding above $124,000 despite a mild pullback from its recent all-time high. The rally isn’t driven by hype alone — on-chain data shows both long-term and short-term holders reinforcing the uptrend, with growing confidence in sustained price strength.
A key metric backing this sentiment is Bitcoin’s exchange net flow, which tracks the balance between BTC entering and leaving exchanges. Negative values suggest investors are moving their coins off exchanges — typically a bullish sign. As of October 4, the 14-day Simple Moving Average for Bitcoin’s net flow hit -7,210 BTC, its lowest level in almost three years. The last similar dip, in late 2022, preceded Bitcoin’s surge from $16,000 to over $72,000.
Further confirming this accumulation trend, HODL Waves data reveals an uptick in both short- and long-term holdings. Coins held for 1-3 months rose from 8.75% to 9.59% of total supply, while 2-3 year holders grew from 7.00% to 7.13%. Though these changes seem small, they represent tens of thousands of BTC — underscoring a meaningful shift toward conviction-based holding.
Technically, Bitcoin has also completed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on the daily chart, closing above the crucial $122,100 neckline. This formation suggests a potential target of $130,100 if bullish momentum continues. Supporting this, the Wyckoff Volume indicator still favors buyers, with blue bars dominating — a sign that demand remains robust.
As long as Bitcoin maintains support above $122,100, analysts expect the price to test $130,000 soon. A drop below $117,900 could pause the rally, but overall sentiment and on-chain metrics continue to point toward further upside in the weeks ahead.
