As the financial markets feel heavy amid the escalating geopolitical tension — largely due to the Israel and Iran conflict — the US Federal Reserve will be adding more fuel to market uncertainty as it is set to announce the outcome of its two-day policy meeting (FOMC) today, on June 18 at 2 p.m. eastern time (ET).
The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, is bracing for potential volatility as market data and betting platforms overwhelmingly suggest the Fed will maintain current rates.
Market analysts are predicting that the Fed will conclude the meeting while keeping rates unaltered today. After the initial announcement, the subsequent press conference will be hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m., where he will share the results of discussions.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 99.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, a stance echoed by Polymarket, a decentralized betting market, where bets heavily favor no rate adjustment.
This decision comes amid a stable yet pressured economic landscape, with inflation at 2.4% in May 2025 and a labor market showing an unemployment rate of 4.2% (Federal Reserve Board). The Summary of Economic Projections, due at 2:00 PM ET, will also provide critical insights into the Fed’s outlook, potentially influencing market sentiment further.
Due to its infamous volatile nature, the crypto market is particularly more sensitive to FOMC outcomes. While it’s hours to the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin is already showing signs of increased volatility, with it hovering near the $105,000 mark, risking a significant pullback to $100K if the Fed signals a hawkish stance or delays rate cuts.
Ethereum has also slipped below $2,500 in a loosening move, reflecting caution among investors, while XRP faces additional pressure due to the ongoing Ripple-SEC case, with a recent deadline extension fueling uncertainty.
Analysts suggest that a dovish hint from Powell could spur capital flows into altcoins, potentially pushing XRP toward $3 and Ethereum above $2,600, as seen in January 2025 when rates held steady at 4.5% at the time. Conversely, a hawkish policy could trigger larger sell-offs and extend current losses.
The Fed’s decision today is further complicated by rising oil prices, which some argue may necessitate rate hikes rather than cuts. As Powell’s cautious approach — rooted in his tenure since 2018 and past quantitative easing policies — suggests a focus on inflation control over stimulus, market reactions are expected to be stiff, with traders anticipating sharp movements in both traditional and digital assets post-announcement.
