Expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025 are helping underpin appetite for risk assets.
September’s slump may not be the last, but an expert says the crypto market still has room to rally into year-end.
“There’s been growing speculation that we’ve reached the top of this cycle, but I don’t think that’s the case,” Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt.
He believes the second half of September might see increased volatility and some short-term pain due to the month’s historical seasonality, driven largely by the U.S. financial year-end.
Bitcoin dropped, roughly 1.29% from Saturday’s high of $116,245 to $114,770, CoinGecko data shows.
For Ethereum, the pain could stem from treasuries, whose market-to-net asset value — comparing a company’s stock value to that of its assets — has dropped below one, which may prompt them to sell the underlying asset and repurchase shares instead, Dawson explained.
Dawson said the market may be only “halfway” through a fourth-quarter upswing, citing supportive macro trends and options data.
The market’s expectation of multiple rate cuts in 2025 aligns with investors’ bullish positioning as seen in options data that shows call open interest for Bitcoin outnumbering puts by nearly 2.5 to 1.
“Macro is turning extremely favourable. The latest Polymarket data shows the odds of three rate cuts before year-end have jumped from 22% to 49% in just two weeks, Dawson said.
The odds of four rate cuts, or a full percentage point, have climbed above 10% — a sharp change in expectations that typically favors risk assets, such as crypto.
The market’s consensus probability of price outcomes shows “a 40% chance Ethereum closes above $5,000 by year-end, and 20% chance it settles above $6,000.
For Bitcoin, the market gives a 37% probability of $125,000 or higher by the same time.”
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are up nearly 6% and 4%, respectively, this month, going against a historically bearish month for digital assets.
