Cryptos are going through a storm. Bitcoin plunges more than 9%, Ethereum loses 6%, and XRP tumbles 15% within a week. Behind this debacle, a persistent belief divides investors: will the legendary four-year bitcoin cycle seal the market’s fate, or is it an outdated relic in the age of institutional adoption?
Retail traders remain trapped in an old belief. Historically, bitcoin follows a predictable pattern: a spectacular surge about a year after each “halving”, then a sharp crash.
The previous peak of $67,000 reached in November 2021 fits perfectly with this scenario. Four years later, some investors are betting on history repeating itself.
“I believe some of the sell-off is due to a cohort of market participants stuck to the four-year cycle”, explains Matthew Nay, analyst at Messari.
The troubling timing, combined with uncertainties related to the Sino-American trade war, pushes these traders to sell aggressively. Jonathan Morgan of Stocktwits talks about a “mechanical sale”: investors who buy before the halving and liquidate when performances disappoint.
Jasper De Maere from Wintermute observes the same phenomenon.
A lot of retail still trades off that old playbook: buy before the halving, sell when it doesn’t moon.
This dynamic accelerated last Friday when Trump’s customs threats triggered billions of dollars in daily liquidation records.
The repercussions spread beyond bitcoin. The fear and greed index plunged to 24, its lowest level since 2023. This panic atmosphere recalls the major corrections of 2018 and 2022.
However, a conviction grows among analysts: the four-year cycle belongs to the past. “This strategy is outdated,” De Maere concludes.
“The halving just doesn’t move the needle anymore; miner rewards are tiny compared to total trading volume.” The 2025 crypto market is nothing like previous years.
The massive arrival of Wall Street changes the game. Bitcoin ETFs, institutional flows, and derivatives now overshadow the miners’ impact.
“The halving model is basically an echo of a younger market”, says Morgan.
Back when miner rewards dictated supply, it mattered. Now, ETFs, institutional flow, and derivatives dwarf that effect.
Altcoins are also gaining importance and autonomy. The increasing convergence between traditional finance and the crypto universe redraws the rules of the game. Matthew Nay remains convinced that bitcoin could regain its historic peaks before the end of the year.
Paradoxically, some encouraging signs are emerging. Small investors are taking advantage of this correction to strengthen their positions, accumulating bitcoin at a reduced price. Despite the widespread panic, this buying dynamic shows some resilience and persistent confidence in the market’s long-term potential. This silent accumulation could well prepare the ground for a future rebound.
The crypto market is going through a turbulence zone where two visions clash: that of an immutable cycle and that of an ecosystem transformed by institutional adoption. While the believers in the four-year cycle feed the current selling pressure, the market fundamentals have profoundly evolved. This fear phase could ultimately prove to be a strategic accumulation opportunity for investors looking beyond the old rules.
