Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) staged a rebound on Monday, even as Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market continue to face headwinds.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $562 million in net inflows, snapping a four-day streak of outflows after seeing $1.5 billion exit the market last week, according to SoSoValue data.
Despite the inflows, analysts warned that ETFs and broader markets may remain under pressure due to ongoing institutional selling and macroeconomic uncertainty, with near-term support likely clustering around ETF cost-basis levels near $84,000.
The renewed interest came as Bitcoin bounced on Monday after briefly falling below $75,000 over the weekend, climbing to an intraday high above $79,000, according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin ETFs still net negative year to date
The $562 million rebound represents a meaningful portion of year-to-date outflows, which stood at $1 billion for spot Bitcoin ETFs as of Tuesday.
Overall, ETFs have seen $4.6 billion in total outflows this year, partially offset by $3.6 billion in inflows, according to SoSoValue.
By contrast, Ether ETFs failed to attract inflows on Monday, instead recording modest outflows of $2.9 million.
ETF flow cost basis now underwater
Beyond the recent outflows, Bitcoin has also fallen below the ETF flow cost basis, according to Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn.
In a market update posted on X on Monday, Thorn said that BTC is currently trading 7.3% below the average ETF creation cost basis of $84,000, having dipped as much as 10% below that level on Saturday, Jan. 31.
“BTC hasn’t traded below the average ETF create cost basis since summer and early fall 2024, when it reached as low as -9.9%. It’s reasonable to expect this level to serve as near-term support.”
Thorn also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price of $56,000, noting that BTC has historically found support “around or slightly below” that level before a bull market.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the market is contending with a mix of headwinds, including unfavorable capital flows, Bitcoin’s decoupling from global money supply trends, heightened geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy following Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Federal Reserve Chair.
“Over the long term, however, the outlook remains constructive,” Butterfill said. “Structural concerns around currency depreciation remain, and Bitcoin’s current lag behind liquidity trends suggests potential for a catch-up.”
On Monday, CoinShares reported that crypto exchange-traded products saw a further $1.7 billion in outflows last week, roughly doubling the outflows recorded the previous week.
