The latest inflows appear to be outright bullish bets rather than basis trades.
After weeks of steady withdrawals, investors are beginning to allocate fresh capital to U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The shift follows a difficult start to the year for the products. From mid-October, when bitcoin’s price began its downfall, through late February, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative outflows of about $9 billion, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart. The category still shows $1.1 billion in net outflows for 2026, but flows have shifted in recent days. Since Feb. 24, investors have added roughly $1.7 billion.
The rebound suggests some investors believe bitcoin may have found at least a short-term floor.
“It was surprising to me that there was basically no dip buying when bitcoin was a falling knife to start the year,” Seyffart said. At the time, software stocks and crypto assets were both sliding, yet investor behavior split. Software ETFs pulled in record inflows as traders tried to time a bottom while bitcoin ETFs continued to see steady withdrawals.
Those withdrawals were not dramatic, but they persisted.
Now the pattern appears to be reversing. Seyffart said recent price action may have helped restore confidence. Over the weekend, bitcoin held above its recent lows despite geopolitical tensions tied to Iran.
“I think investors are likely feeling a bit more comfortable that we have hit at least a near-term bottom,” Seyffart said. “That higher low this weekend on such massive news had to be a comfort to some.”
The inflows also appear to reflect outright bullish positioning rather than market-neutral trading strategies. Some institutional investors use ETFs and futures together in what is known as a basis trade, where they capture yield from price differences between spot and futures markets.
But that setup does not appear attractive right now.
Yields tied to those trades remain relatively low, while open interest across CME’s crypto futures and options markets has declined. That drop suggests fewer traders are putting on large derivatives positions that typically accompany arbitrage strategies.
Instead, the ETF inflows look more like straightforward bets on bitcoin’s price direction.
Despite bitcoin falling about 16% this year, nearly all spot bitcoin ETFs still show net positive flows for 2026, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) adding roughly $300 million in capital year-to-date. That dynamic highlights how investors continue to allocate through regulated fund structures even during downturns.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, said the flows also reflect growing conviction among large asset managers promoting the funds.
“It’s easy to frame this as BlackRock simply promoting its highest-revenue product,” Geraci said. “But I see it more as the firm doubling down on its conviction that bitcoin belongs in diversified portfolios.”
Geraci noted that BlackRock has many higher-fee ETFs it could spotlight instead. Meanwhile its spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, is down about 4% this year. Asset managers rarely highlight lagging funds unless they believe strongly in the long-term case, he said.
