Bitcoin may be on the verge of a bull run that could extend into 2035, following what appears to have been a bear market over the past 12 months, according to Jan3 founder Samson Mow.
Not all analysts agree. Some argue that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $125,100 in October marked the peak of the current cycle, with 2026 potentially ushering in a new bear market.
“2025 was the bear market,” Mow wrote in a post on X on Friday, suggesting Bitcoin could be about to embark on a “decade-long bull run.” Bitcoin analyst PlanC echoed the view, saying, “If you made it through 2025, you made it through the bear market,” in a post on X the same day.
Bitcoin on track for a negative year
PlanC also noted that Bitcoin has never posted two consecutive red yearly candles, even as the asset looks set to end the year below its opening price.
As of publication, Bitcoin was down 8.98% since Jan. 1, trading at $87,210, according to CoinMarketCap. The price remains well below earlier projections from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, both of whom suggested as recently as October that Bitcoin could still reach $250,000 by year-end.
Market sentiment has hovered near yearly lows throughout much of December.
On Thursday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped three points to a reading of 20 out of 100 on Dec. 26, extending a two-week stretch of “extreme fear” that began on Dec. 13.
Industry split on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook
Executives and analysts remain divided on how Bitcoin will perform in 2026.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could drop as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, said 2026 may be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially falling to around $65,000.
Others, however, are more optimistic. Strategy CEO Phong Le recently said Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remained strong throughout 2025, despite weakening prices and sentiment toward year-end. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has also expressed confidence, saying in July that 2026 would be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
