The Federal Reserve’s third rate cut of 2025 gave US equities another lift this week, while Bitcoin briefly dipped before bouncing. That split has become a theme since midyear. Over the past six months, Bitcoin is down nearly 18%, even as the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 21%, the S&P 500 has gained 14.35%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 12.11%.
The gap matters because more BTC demand now runs through traditional channels, yet the price has not followed the same path as stocks. Bitcoin still notched big moments in 2025, including fresh all-time highs and its third straight positive September, avoiding the usual “red September.” However, once the post-peak correction set in, the divergence widened.
July paired strong equity performance with crypto resilience. BTC finished the month up 8.13%, its best monthly gain of the second half so far, after President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law and sentiment improved across parts of the sector, especially stablecoin-focused businesses. Corporate balance sheet buying stayed in focus, and interest in major tokens such as Ether and Solana also started to build.
August brought a rush of rate-cut expectations. BTC surged to a new all-time high near $124,000 on Aug. 14, then faded. After Jerome Powell’s dovish signal at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22 helped push Ether to a new all-time high, BTC failed to hold its bounce and closed August down 6.49%.
September delivered the year’s first 25-basis-point Fed cut and BTC ended up 5.16%, while equities extended their rally. Internal debate over a proposed network change also intensified, with BTC Knots gaining attention as an alternative to Bitcoin Core.
October turned messy. Bitcoin hit another high on Oct. 6, then saw roughly $19 billion liquidated in the biggest wipeout on record, with a Trump post threatening 100% tariffs on China cited as the immediate catalyst. November was worse: Bitcoin fell 17.67% and slipped under $100,000 midmonth, even as stocks steadied when the US government shutdown ended. In December, forecasts cooled, with Standard Chartered cutting its year-end target from $200,000 to $100,000 and pushing its $500,000 timeline from 2028 to 2030.
