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Bitcoin is now back trading above $115,000, but the recovery comes with a shadow that cannot be ignored. A new gap opened on the CME Bitcoin futures chart, and while the spot market has pushed higher since then, the presence of this gap opens up a bearish scenario. These gaps have a history of pulling Bitcoin back down to fill them, and the most recent one opens up questions about how long the current bullish momentum can last.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto noted on the social media platform X how Bitcoin opened the week with a huge CME gap that has continued higher since the futures open. This gap is important, as it has been a while since Bitcoin opened with such a huge gap.
As shown in the chart image below, this CME gap is between $110,000 and $111,300. Gaps on CME futures have a tendency to close fairly quickly, meaning that Bitcoin often retraces to the level of the gap before resuming its trend. If that happens this time, the short-term structure of Bitcoin’s price action could deteriorate into a bearish momentum.
However, Daan also noted that this gap should not be considered in play unless Bitcoin drops below $111,000. But if that happens, the futures chart could drag spot prices lower and turn recent strength into weakness.
A CME gap occurs because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does not trade over the weekend, unlike the spot Bitcoin market, which operates 24/7. When Bitcoin makes a big move on Saturday or Sunday, CME futures reopen on Sunday evening at a different level than they closed on Friday, and this leaves an empty gap on the price chart.
It’s common knowledge that Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps by returning to the level of the gap before continuing in its trend. If Bitcoin retraces to close this latest gap between the $110,000 to $111,000 range, it would erase the recovery that pushed it to $115,000 and bring the price back into a zone of uncertainty.
According to Daan Crypto, if that were to happen here, then the entire structure would look pretty bad in the short term. However, this might be one of those very few gaps that never closes or not until months later. This would most likely be the case, unless Bitcoin breaks below $111,000. A dip below $111,000 could ultimately see Bitcoin losing the $110,000 price level again.
If Bitcoin can stay above $115,000 and there’s enough buying pressure, then the gap can be ignored in the short term. The next test will be whether buyers can sustain the recently found momentum and push towards $120,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,380, up by 1.4% in the past 24 hours.
