Bitcoin hovered around $111,925 at the time of reporting, slipping roughly 1.3% over the past 24 hours as escalating U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on risk sentiment, prompting traders to reduce leverage.
Despite the decline, trading activity picked up. Bitcoin’s 24-hour spot volume jumped about 35% to $90 billion, while derivatives turnover rose nearly 40% to $144 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, open interest fell around 2% to $72.5 billion, indicating that traders were closing leveraged positions rather than opening new ones—a move that can ease short-term volatility but leave markets exposed to sudden swings.
Geopolitical tensions pressure Bitcoin
On October 14, former U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tensions with China by threatening a ban on cooking oil imports from Beijing, responding to China’s ongoing boycott of U.S. soybeans. This statement followed weeks of tariff threats and retaliatory measures, fueling concerns of a full-blown U.S.–China trade war.
Global markets reacted sharply to the move, with stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all feeling the impact. The Nasdaq plunged as much as 3.5%, while investors sought safety in assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries. Bitcoin, often treated as a “risk-on” asset during macroeconomic uncertainty, declined alongside equities.
The latest turmoil follows last week’s crypto flash crash, which saw over $19 billion in long positions liquidated within 24 hours—one of the largest wipeouts in history. An additional $600 million in leveraged positions were closed in the past day as traders continued to reduce risk exposure.
Attention now turns to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 29–30, with markets pricing in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, recent Fed minutes signaling persistent inflation have tempered expectations. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields are putting additional pressure on Bitcoin, which historically struggles in tighter liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is showing short-term weakness after falling below key moving averages. The 10-, 20-, and 30-day EMAs are all above the current price, signaling near-term pressure. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving averages around $107,000–$108,000 provide critical long-term support.
Momentum indicators remain bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, signaling weakening strength without reaching oversold territory, while both the MACD and momentum indicators are negative.
Trend signals are moderate. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 25 suggests that the current move could still intensify. Bitcoin is trading in the lower half of its range, with Bollinger Bands indicating cooling yet persistent volatility.
A rebound above the $115,000–$116,000 resistance zone could pave the way toward $123,000. On the downside, support is around $107,000–$108,000, and a break below this level could trigger a drop to $104,000 or even $100,000. Bulls will need strong volume to sustain any recoveries, while bears may aim for another sell-off toward the 200-day moving average.
