Bitcoin may need to stay above the key $110,000 support level to have a shot at retesting its all-time high, an analyst suggests, after the cryptocurrency dropped 5% over the weekend.
The price fell from around $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 by Sunday, marking a bearish start to what has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin.
“A lot will depend on how risk sentiment holds together after Friday’s dire U.S. jobs report and the latest tariff developments,” IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph on Monday, as Bitcoin rebounded to $114,800.
He noted that the weekend’s pullback tested and held the support level near the previous all-time high of $112,000, calling it “the logical pullback target.”
“If risk sentiment stabilizes and Bitcoin remains above the $112,000/$110,000 support, it can retest the record high. However, just above here is significant monthly resistance at $125,000, and I don’t see the catalyst for that to break right now.”
However, if risk appetite weakens further in August and Bitcoin breaks below its key support level, the correction could deepen toward the 200-day moving average at $99,355, Sycamore warned.
His outlook aligns with a recent prediction from Arthur Hayes, who on Sunday cautioned that macroeconomic headwinds could push Bitcoin back down to the $100,000 mark.
August has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has typically seen a monthly decline in August dating back to 2013.
In 2024, the cryptocurrency fell 8.6%, dipping just above $59,000—though that drop was milder compared to the double-digit losses seen in August 2023 and 2022, when prices fell to $27,300 and $19,800, respectively.
Historically, Bitcoin’s average August decline has been around 11.4%. If that pattern holds this year, the price could slide to approximately $105,000.
However, the data also shows that during strong bull markets, August hasn’t always followed this bearish trend.
September has historically been just as bearish for Bitcoin
The last time Bitcoin posted a gain in August was during the 2021 bull market, when it climbed 13.8% to finish the month just above $47,000. This offers some hope, especially with 2025 shaping up to be a bull market year based on the four-year cycle.
However, the outlook for September isn’t much better—historically, eight out of the past twelve Septembers have ended in losses.
