Bitcoin enters the second week of September facing key resistance as traders eye potential downside.
Over the weekend, BTC hovered below $112,000, fueling concerns of a possible 10% correction—or worse.
With CPI data on the horizon, markets are closely watching how significant next week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision might be.
Emerging data suggests the institutional rotation from Bitcoin to Ether-focused exchange-traded products may be winding down.
Whales have returned to the market, triggering heavy selling reminiscent of the 2022 bear cycle over the past month.
Meanwhile, Binance is under scrutiny as market participants raise concerns over a potential BTC price top.
BTC Price Concerns Mount as Sub-$100K Risks Loom
Bitcoin sidestepped major volatility during its latest weekly close, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
$112,000 continues to be a critical target for traders looking for a resistance-to-support flip.
Examining exchange order-book liquidity, prominent trader CrypNuevo highlighted $106,700 as a key downside level.
He noted on X Sunday, “If the previous range lows continue to act as resistance, price will likely test the liquidation point at $106.7K.”
Attention is turning to how far BTC/USD could fall in a potential capitulation event.
The $100,000 level remains a key line in the sand, with Fibonacci retracement levels aligning to make a retest of this area a “worst-case scenario.”
Telegram analytics channel Coin Signals offered an even more sobering target: a 30% drop from Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs.
“Based on the cycle’s typical correction percentage and the time it takes to reach lows from a local top, BTC could see a -30% correction from the local top of $124K, bottoming in the last week of September or first week of October,” the post on X explained.
If realized, this scenario would put BTC/USD around $87,000.
CPI Week Arrives as Fed Trails Behind the Curve
This week brings key U.S. economic data releases, even as markets largely anticipate what’s next.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is set for Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.
Inflation continues to climb, while signs of a weakening labor market are mounting — a tricky scenario for the Federal Reserve. Markets, however, seem confident in predicting the Fed’s response.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September interest-rate cut is fully priced in, with a small possibility that the reduction could exceed the standard 0.25%.
This comes amid increasing criticism of the Fed’s policy, which has kept interest rates unchanged throughout 2025 while other major central banks have moved to cut.
“The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have cut rates four and three times this year, respectively. The Bank of Canada has reduced rates twice, as has the Swiss National Bank — the first major central bank to return rates to 0%,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted on X Monday.
“Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains on hold with 0 rate cuts in 2025. US monetary policy is in its own world.”
Recession fears are mounting, with The Kobeissi Letter pointing to a dip in construction spending as a “key recession signal.”
“While seasonal trends indicate potential weakness ahead, the longer-term path for the S&P 500 will depend on the economy once the Fed resumes cutting rates,” noted trading firm Mosaic Asset Company in the latest edition of its update series, The Market Mosaic.
Mosaic emphasized that avoiding a recession is essential to sustain stock market growth. Stocks and gold are currently rising, while Bitcoin continues to lag. “Over the long run, stock prices ultimately follow earnings, which is why the economic outlook is so critical,” the report stressed.
Institutions “re-rotating” into Bitcoin
Meanwhile, chatter around an institutional rotation from Bitcoin to Ether appears to be cooling.
Last week, Bitcoin-denominated exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw positive inflows, in stark contrast to Ether equivalents.
Data shared on X Monday by Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, shows Bitcoin ETPs gained $444 million over the five days ending Sept. 5.
During the same period, Ether ETPs experienced net outflows exceeding $900 million.
“Interesting to see a renewed ‘re-rotation’ from $ETH back to $BTC in terms of global ETP flows last week,” Dragosch noted.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finished the four-day trading week with gains of roughly $250 million.
In contrast, data from UK investment firm Farside Investors showed spot Ether ETFs experienced four consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $750 million.
Bitcoin Bear Whales Are Back
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant is raising alarms as the largest Bitcoin holders reduce their BTC exposure, echoing patterns from the 2022 bear market.
“In the last thirty days, whale reserves have fallen by more than 100,000 BTC, signaling intense risk aversion among large investors,” contributor Caue Oliveira wrote in a recent Quicktake blog post.
The 30-day drawdown in whale balances through the end of last week was the largest since mid-2022, when BTC/USD was midway through its last bear cycle, eventually bottoming at $15,600 in November.
“At this time, we are still seeing reductions in the portfolios of major players, which could continue to put pressure on Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” Oliveira added.
Whale Activity Influences Short-Term BTC Moves
As Cointelegraph reported, shifts in whale behavior are visibly impacting short-term Bitcoin price action, as large amounts of liquidity flow in and out of exchange order books.
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Signals Caution
The Bitcoin futures market on Binance is drawing attention as liquidity in perpetual contracts wanes. New research from CryptoQuant highlights a classic indicator often seen during bull market corrections.
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio — the ratio of buy volume to taker sell volume — is currently making lower lows even as the price rises.
“Bullish divergence of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has repeatedly occurred during price bottoms or sideways consolidation phases in this Bitcoin bull cycle, ongoing since 2023,” contributor Mignolet noted in another Quicktake post.
Mignolet points out that while this pattern was also observed near the 2021 bull-run peak, current volume dynamics differ due to significant institutional participation.
The situation could turn precarious if the trend persists. “To be blunt, all liquidity is weakening,” the post concludes.
“If this liquidity recovers, the market likely isn’t over yet. However, if liquidity doesn’t recover despite numerous positive catalysts, the situation could become serious.”
Since launching in 2019, Binance Bitcoin futures have seen “colossal” trading volumes exceeding $700 trillion.
“This staggering figure surpasses the estimated value of the global real estate market and is five times larger than the combined capitalization of global equities and bonds,” CryptoQuant contributor Darkfrost noted on Sunday.
