Bitcoin’s rising price is making it increasingly inaccessible to everyday investors, sparking concerns about whether the ongoing bull market can maintain momentum beyond its traditional four-year cycle.
According to crypto market intelligence firm 10x Research, Bitcoin has become “too expensive” for consistent retail accumulation — a trend that could jeopardize expectations of an extended bull run.
While many analysts have predicted that this market cycle might last longer than previous ones, 10x Research cautioned that drawing conclusions based on the last four cycles is “highly questionable.”
“Bitcoin is showing signs of diminishing returns,” the firm said in a report released Tuesday, adding:
“While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”
Considering that Bitcoin is only a 16-year-old asset, drawing “firm statistical conclusions” from this short time is “highly questionable,” added 10X Research.
Despite the popularity of forecasting models like the stock-to-flow (S2F) model — which projects Bitcoin could soar to $1 million — 10x Research expects a more conservative outcome, predicting a cycle peak of $125,000 by the end of the year.
The firm, which accurately identified the bear market bottom in October 2022, based its latest forecast on the same analytical framework.
While 10x’s outlook is notably cautious, other market analysts remain far more bullish. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, recently forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, viewing the recent $19 billion liquidation event as a potential buying opportunity.
Kendrick also reiterated his earlier prediction that Bitcoin might climb to $500,000 by the end of former President Trump’s second term in 2028, according to Cointelegraph.
Meanwhile, blockchain intelligence data from Nansen shows that so-called “smart money” traders have been steadily increasing their Bitcoin exposure — a sign of growing institutional confidence in the asset’s long-term trajectory.
According to Nansen data, Binance-pegged Bitcoin (BTCB) ranked as the 11th most-held asset among smart money traders on Tuesday, trailing behind several high-risk memecoins such as Pump.fun (PUMP) and Pepe (PEPE).
