Many investors looking at Bitcoin’s latest pullback are bracing for a dramatic washout. But one crypto analyst argues the opposite: the downturn might already be close to exhausting itself — and the next leg higher could begin from a level far above where most bears expect.
Instead of warning about a crash into the $50,000s or lower, the analyst believes the market is shaping up for a controlled reset inside the higher price ranges. In his view, the biggest cluster of probabilities sits not in disaster territory but in an area that would still keep Bitcoin deep inside bullish long-term structure.
His model visualizes the current correction as a probability curve rather than an emotional forecast. The curve peaks around the $70,000-$80,000 band, which he identifies as the most realistic zone for Bitcoin to finalize its bottom. Everything below that begins to show smaller and smaller likelihoods.
The analyst’s curve continues to taper: a dip to $60,000-$70,000 sits in the slim-chance category; $50,000-$60,000 drifts into unlikely territory; and anything under $50,000 is labeled borderline impossible — statistically speaking. Under that framework, $70,000 becomes the practical definition of the worst case rather than the catastrophic depths many fear.
Interestingly, his outlook doesn’t come from someone trying to time every fluctuation. He openly states he doesn’t chase short-term entries or exits and considers Bitcoin a multi-year growth story rather than a trading instrument.
He said he wouldn’t even consider selling the majority of his holdings until he hits a 100x return on his cost basis, something he believes could realistically materialize five to ten years from now. From that perspective, he sees $126,000 — or any price near it — as nowhere near “expensive” when measured against his long-range target.
Another distinctive part of his thesis is timing. Bitcoin, he argues, hasn’t yet shown the behavioral markers of a cycle peak. His model places the true top sometime in 2026 or 2027, not in the current year, and he views the ongoing pullback as the middle portion of a larger upward cycle, not the end of one.
Despite that confidence, he still stresses that markets are probabilistic systems — not prophecies — and all targets remain subject to new data.
