Structural risks tied to MSCI’s review could keep markets bleeding unless a crucial ruling turns bullish.
Bitcoin plunged to $81.7K, wiping billions from the crypto market on Friday as it dropped more than 8.3% within hours, marking the largest liquidation event since October 10. More than $2 billion in leveraged trades vanished, pushing the Fear & Greed Index back into extreme fear.
But the size of the liquidation isn’t the real story. According to crypto entrepreneur Ran Neuner, the sell-off is tied to a much deeper structural threat that has been building quietly in the background.
A Market Shocked by Leverage, but Missing a Catalyst
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 9.3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading near $83K. Ethereum (ETH) dropped a similar 9.75% to the $2.7K range after another wave of liquidations shook the market.
Bitcoin is currently more than 30% below its October all-time high, and the total crypto market capitalization has slipped to $2.85 trillion.
More than $2.02 billion in overleveraged positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass, with the vast majority ($1.87 billion) coming from long positions. Bitcoin longs alone accounted for $1.02 billion.
Short-term holders are realizing losses at levels not seen since the FTX collapse, according to Glassnode.
On the surface, this looks like a routine leverage wipeout. Many analysts say the crash lacks a clear fundamental trigger and is simply a “liquidity reset,” a flush of speculative long positions with no strong buy-side support.
But Neuner argues this view misses the real catalyst.
MSCI’s Classification Review: the Real Trigger
In his recent X post, Neuner points to an MSCI, one of the world’s biggest financial index providers, announcement on October 10 as the moment “smart money” started exiting the market.
On that day, MSCI said it was reviewing whether companies that hold crypto as their main business (like MicroStrategy and other “DATs”) should be classified as companies or funds.
If these companies are reclassified as funds, they would be removed from major stock indices. That would force pension funds and passive index trackers to automatically sell their shares, instantly cutting off a major stream of institutional demand. They would also be barred from future index inclusion, eliminating an engine of long-term buying pressure.
Neuner argues that institutional investors recognized this risk immediately after the announcement, triggering the October 10 crash and preventing any meaningful recovery since.
What Happens Next?
According to Neuner, the market may continue sliding into December. The key turning point arrives on January 15, 2026, when MSCI releases its final decision.
If the decisions appear to be negative, another major sell-off across Bitcoin-exposed equities may occur, spilling into the broader crypto market. A positive ruling, he says, could restart the bull market.
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