Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen expects a bearish month for Bitcoin BTC/USD in August, which could lead to fresh lows for altcoins.
What Happened: In a July 21 podcast, Cowen maintains that altcoins remain elevated when measured against BTC, citing his custom indicator, “Total3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin”, which suggests further downside for altcoins.
According to Cowen, even when Bitcoin dominance hit 60% in October 2024, altcoins were still trading 27%-28% above their historical range lows.
“It didn’t make sense for that to be the top of Bitcoin dominance because altcoin/BTC pairs were still well above their range lows,” he said.
While Cowen sees Ethereum ETH/USD as likely having bottomed vs BTC, he warns most altcoins are still bleeding heavily, down over 42% vs ETH since April.
Given the risk-reward profile, Cowen says he prefers ETH over smaller-cap altcoins, calling it a lower-risk, higher-upside play in the current macro setup.
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What’s Next: Cowen emphasizes August’s seasonal weakness, pointing out that Bitcoin has historically dropped between 12%-14% in August for the past three years.
This could pressure both BTC and altcoins, although he sees BTC dominance climbing sharply from late August onward.
He expects the combined dominance of BTC and ETH, currently around 73%, to rise to near 85%, especially if altcoins underperform into Q4.
Even if altcoins rally briefly, as in 2017, he expects them to revisit cycle lows around 0.25 on his custom metric by October.
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