Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole, has warned that Bitcoin’s price could drop well below $50,000 if the network is not made quantum-resistant by 2028.
The potential threat posed by quantum computing has long been a topic of debate within the crypto industry and is widely viewed as a future inflection point. In theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could break existing cryptographic standards, allowing attackers to uncover private keys, expose sensitive information, and potentially drain user funds.
While many believe such risks are still years away, Edwards suggested the timeline may be shorter. In a post on X on Wednesday, he said 2028 could be a critical deadline and cautioned that failure to address quantum vulnerabilities in time could trigger a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.
“I’m starting to think it may take a major bear market to flush out those who dismiss the quantum threat to Bitcoin as a joke, and to push maximalists into taking the steps needed to upgrade the network,” he said.
“If we haven’t deployed a fix by 2028, I expect Bitcoin will be sub $50K and continue to fall until it’s fixed.”
Quantum patch needs rollout by 2026
Some critics argue that the risks posed by quantum computing are overstated, pointing out that the technology is still decades away from practical use and that traditional targets such as major banks would be compromised long before Bitcoin.
Edwards, however, has consistently maintained that the threat is far more immediate. He argues that Bitcoin could be “first on the quantum chopping block,” as many banks and large institutions are already transitioning to post-quantum encryption, and fraudulent transactions in traditional finance can often be reversed or stopped — protections that do not exist on Bitcoin’s base layer.
“We need to address this next year — otherwise, bon voyage, and enjoy the biggest Bitcoin bear market in history. FTX will look like a cakewalk,” Edwards added.
Bitcoin veteran Willy Woo suggested last month that one way to protect holdings until a quantum-resistant solution is in place is to store Bitcoin in a SegWit wallet for roughly seven years.
Meanwhile, in July, prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor played down concerns about quantum computing’s potential impact on Bitcoin, describing the issue as a marketing tactic used to hype quantum-themed tokens.
