Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing what analysts describe as its most critical resistance level of the current bear market.
Key points:
- Bitcoin has arguably its most important resistance battle at $84,000.
- A failure to reclaim a 200-day trend line opens up the road down to $50,000 lows, warns analysis.
- The bull market support band needs to hold in the event of a corrective phase.
Bitcoin faces key test to avoid “bear cycle continuation”
In a post on X, crypto analytics firm TradingShot highlighted a crucial decision point ahead for Bitcoin bulls.
According to TradingView data, BTC continues to hover around the $82,000 level, but the $84,000 zone remains the critical threshold that must be reclaimed as support to sustain bullish momentum.
“Bitcoin is approaching a test of its 1-day 200 moving average (MA200), a key resistance level in bear market conditions, while also entering a pivot zone formed from a previous low,” noted TradingShot.
The accompanying chart draws parallels with the 2022 bear market, highlighting the role of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). During that period, BTC/USD attempted to reclaim the 200-day SMA after falling below it, but the effort failed—ultimately leading to fresh macro lows.
According to the analysis, this setup reflects a recurring pattern seen in downtrends, where price revisits prior support zones that later act as resistance—similar to what occurred throughout the 2022 bear cycle.
Should history repeat, TradingShot warns of a sharp correction, with a potential downside target near $50,000.
“A rejection from this ‘stepping stones’ pattern would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle toward $50,000, while a breakout would invalidate that scenario,” the firm said.
As previously reported, the $50,000 level remains a widely watched downside target among traders who believe the broader bear trend could persist.
Bull market support band in focus
While the 200-day SMA stands as the key resistance, analysts emphasize that nearby support levels are just as critical. The so-called bull market support band—made up of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA—currently sits around $78,000.
Trading account Cryptic Trades noted that this zone should remain the primary focus for market participants.
“I believe that as long as price holds above this range, along with the April 2025 bottoming structure near $76K, the broader market structure remains intact,” the analyst wrote.
“The other key level to track is the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple around $84K, where I believe we could see a short-term rejection.”
