Bitcoin (BTC) price nosedived by over 21.3% in the past week to under $65,000 on Thursday, erasing 15 months of gains completely. However, the crypto could be at risk of a deeper downtrend, according to analysts at 116-year-old global wealth management firm Stifel.
In a note to clients on Wednesday, Stifel analysts predicted that Bitcoin could drop as low as $38,000 in the coming months. With the premier cryptocurrency recently hovering around $64,836, according to CoinGecko, that would represent a 41% drop from Thursday’s prices.
The analysts cited the extent to which Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time highs amid previous “super-bears”; the asset declined 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. Based on the ascending nature of those lows, Stifel estimated a 70% pullback this time around, while admitting that this represents their ugly bear case scenario.
“Already down -41% from the high, Bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister wrote.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 and has since plunged 48.1%, revisiting levels last seen in late 2024.
Stifel analysts also highlighted the significance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin’s latest pullback was sparked by the hawkish tone of December’s rate cut.
The analysts noted that if voting members of the Federal Open Markets Committee indicate no interest in fostering an inflationary boom amid an economic environment overcast by tariffs, then that could mark the Bitcoin bottom.
Adding to the pain in the Bitcoin market, according to Stifel, is the CLARITY Act stalemate. After Coinbase abruptly withdrew support for the legislation, lawmakers have struggled to gain bipartisan support for the flagship crypto market structure bill. Moreover, momentum to pass the legislation has faded, as the Senate Banking Committee, which is vital to its passage, has not yet rescheduled a meeting to advance it.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has fared even worse than Bitcoin, plunging over 30% in the past week and dropping to its lowest level since last May, currently trading around $1,899, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.30 after plummeting approximately 25.4% over the last seven days, while Cardano’s ADA is currently valued at $0.2525.
A deeper Bitcoin retracement could fuel broader risk aversion in the crypto market.
