We’re approaching what may be a key moment for bitcoin’s medium-term directional risks, with the price sandwiched between horizontal resistance at $117,600 on the topside and the 50-day moving average and September uptrend on the downside. Whichever way it breaks — if that happens — may provide clues as to whether we’ll see another retest of the record high of $124,500.
From a momentum perspective, upside is favoured: RSI (14) continues to set higher highs above 50, while MACD has staged a bullish crossover of the signal line and is now pushing into positive territory. It’s not a slam-dunk case for bulls, but it’s a better backdrop than for bears.
Should we see a break above Thursday’s high and preferably a close, longs could be established above $117,600 with a stop beneath for protection. Minor resistance is located at $119,000, putting that on the radar as an initial target. If that level is cleared, eyes will then turn to a potential retest of the August highs.
Of note, bitcoin has performed particularly well in the December quarter recently, coinciding with the Fed’s dovish pivot in 2023 and Fed rate cuts and Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024. That doesn’t guarantee a similar outcome this time, but with the Fed signalling further rate cuts this year, it probably doesn’t hurt the bullish case either.
Should bitcoin break beneath the 50DMA/September uptrend, it could sow the seeds for a bearish setup, where shorts could be established beneath with a stop above, targeting $113,500 initially.
Good luck!
DS
